First Winter Storm Forecast for Mammoth Mountain Ski Area

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Mammoth Mountain – 9-28-2011 – 7:07 pm

If your ready for a taste of winter it’s look to be on the way by next Wednesday into Thursday. A strong storm for anytime of the year will make it’s way over Mammoth Mountain.  Snow levels should drop to 8000 feet.

This is a bit far out but we could see 3-5 inches or as much as 2 feet up over the top of mammoth mountain by late next week.

Week one is looking wet for this time of year, the week after that looks dry, but we have seen other models showing a chance of rain and snow again by late week 2.

When the MJO gets into area 5 as seen below, it’s about 7-10 days later that we get a good storm or if it’s winter even a week of storms.  So for next week this chart confirms we have a strong chance for a storm to move over Mammoth Mountain.

From Fresno NWS: THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS DOES INDICATE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WET WEATHER OVER OUR AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING OF THIS IS OUR SECOND FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY. THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FLATTENED BY SUNDAY AS A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE PAC NW COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO LOWER AND BRING A COOLING TREND TO OUR AREA SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY. AS FOR THE TIMING OF TWO STORM SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR AREA…THE FASTER GFS IS PREFERRED OVER THE ECMWF BECAUSE OF IT/S BETTER ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT TODAY. WITH THE FASTER TIMING IN MIND…THE FIRST STORM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS NORCAL ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY…POSSIBLY BRUSHING AREAS FROM FRESNO NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL CA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING OUR AREA WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AS SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR 7000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSEQUENTLY…POPS AND SKY COVER GRIDS HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON IMPROVED CONFIDENCE THAT OUR AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY OUR FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON. WELCOME TO AUTUMN. From Fresno

You can find the current forecast for Mammoth Mountain at this link.