7 AM – 11-17-2018 – Good morning from Mammoth Mountain, the ski area is open with Chairs 1, Chair 11 and G1 to Mid Chalet. Runs currently open are Broadway, Silver Tip, Rustys, Andys Double Gold, and Sesame Street.
They also have a terrain park set up with 6 jibs in the Main Park slope-style area. So not a lot open yet, but it’s still fun to get out and make some turns and get that body ready for when the whole mountain is open.
Snow conditions are 100% man-made, so you have 12-18 inches of a firm base with a soft groomed out surface. The snow is best before noon, my advice is to get on the hill right at 8:30, the first two hours are the best.
Snowmaking continues with snow being blown on Stump Alley, Forest Trail, and Mambo. It’s slow going without any natural snow and no snowmaking during the day.
The forecast for snowmaking calls for good snowmaking tonight and then great snowmaking conditions nightly starting Friday as more cold air moves into our area. If you’re suffering the smoky skies down in the city come on up we have clear skis with little to no smoke in the air.
The good news is it appears we will finally have that big change in the pattern coming around Wednesday. We could be looking at a white Thanksgiving up on the mountain and down into town.
The snowman will be back out on the hill on Sunday to get some fresh photos of the runs that just opened and of course I will be passing out stickers.
(AD) Fast Ski Sports Ski Tuning Clinic #1 – Saturday, December 1, 2018, at 7 PM – 8 PM – This clinic will be taught by Matt Finnigan and will feature information on the tuning of your skies edges. Ski edges tuned right will make your carving feel perfect. Get the details and RSVP here.
Today’s weather forecast is calling for a high in the upper 30s to low 40s at Main Lodge, looks to be that way thru the weekend. Lows will be in the low to mid-20s, so snowmaking will be a bit more productive.
Winds today will be 5-15 MPH out of the South West on the runs that are open.
When the heck will it snow? Right now the NWS has snow likely on Travel Day Wednesday with a chance of snow continuing at times right thru the following Sunday and into the following week.
Just what we have been waiting, lot’s of fresh snow for the Mountain and Town to turn everything white. If these storms do come thru as forecast you will see lot’s more lifts and runs open by next weekend.
Snowman out… Scroll down the page for our detailed extended powder forecast.
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Mostly sunny weather is expected through the weekend with slightly colder temps Sunday and Monday. The dry weather should last into early next week before snowfall is favored by the middle and latter part of next week. Another chance for snowfall is possible over the latter part of the Holiday weekend before fair weather may return over the following week. Longer range guidance is now favoring dry weather first part of December before storms may return by the second week of the month.
Next update Tuesday 11/20
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Sat 11/17 = 0”
Sun 11/18 = 0”
Mon 11/19 = 0”
Tue 11/20 = 0”
Wed 11/21 = 0 – 1” **4
Thu 11/22 = 9 – 15” **2
Fri 11/23 = 3 – 6” **2
Sat – Mon 11/24 – 26 = 6 – 15”
November Snowfall = 0”
November Forecast = 20 – 30”
Detailed 5-day Snowfall Forecast:
Sat 11/17 through Tue 11/20 — No snowfall expected all days.
Mostly sunny weather is expected through the weekend and into Monday next week with slightly colder temperatures by Sunday/Monday along with a slight increase in northeast winds. ECM model (image below) moves a weak slider type shortwave southward through the Great Basin Saturday night, otherwise, high pressure will remain off the coast and block any storms from moving ashore.
Overall, snowmaking will get a little better Sunday and Monday with the slightly colder temps. Other than possibly some increasing clouds Tuesday, not much change in the weather is expected through early next week.
It looks like the super long range guidance that was favoring snowfall around Thanksgiving as long as a few weeks ago may come to fruition next week. Medium range guidance is now showing a decent trough of low pressure moving southward to just off the California coast by early next Wednesday (ECM model below).
The ECM and Canadian models are the deepest and farthest south with the trough while the GFS is weaker and farther northward. As a matter of fact, the 12Z run of the GFS doesn’t bring any snowfall southward into Mammoth with the low-pressure system staying too far northward. Conversely, the 12Z run of the ECM has over 1.5” liquid with the passage of the trough that would equate to more than a foot at Main. The Canadian is showing only a tad less than the ECM model.
The current forecast follows the ECM ensemble mean that is favoring just over an inch of liquid and around a foot of snowfall for Main for Thanksgiving. It is still a bit too far out to believe any one of the runs of the operational models, especially since there has been quite a bit of run to run variability. The first part of the pattern should be in full focus by the Tuesday update.
The models then develop another trough in the wake of the passage of the Turkey storm that would possibly bring more snow Friday and/or again Sunday. The latest ECM is now farther northward with this feature and keeps Mammoth mostly dry Friday (image below). It does move another wave southward Sunday (two images below) for some light/moderate snowfall into Monday. Not sure I believe this particular solution.
The reason being is that the GFS and Canadian both show a slower solution with the upper-level longwave trough remaining off the coast and farther southward through the weekend (image below). The Canadian is the most aggressive with a couple feet of snow while the GFS shows modest amounts. The 12Z GFS showed around 15” for Mammoth (two images below) for the total period with most of that falling over the latter part of the weekend.
The current thinking uses a blend of all the models for maybe another foot of snow. Still way too early to say there will be big snowfall over the Holiday weekend like the Canadian model suggests, but there is certainly a chance. Hopefully, these storms will come through and lay down a much-needed base so we can start having powder days.
The longer range guidance is now favoring the longwave trough to shift eastward over the last part of the month and possibly into early December. The GFS model (image below) and most of the ensembles are showing this pattern that would put Mammoth in a light northwest flow. That would mean dry weather and seasonable temperatures.
Not surprisingly, the CFS climate model has now backed off its wet forecast through mid-December and is now favoring average precipitation (images below). The ECM model also drifted slightly drier, but still shows a bit more potential snowfall than the CFS, particularly the second week of December. At least those models are not showing a strong dry signal, but overall, I would not put too much weight into those super long-range forecasts regardless. WG
Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman? Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about mammoth mountain weather and snow conditions first hand.
Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with his Video & Photo Blog reports. (No YouTube back then)
Snowman has had his reports, videos, and photos featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth, along with AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News. Learn more about the Snowman and our team here at MammothSnowman.com at this link.
Ted Schlaepfer – CCM – The Mammoth Weather Guy
We met The Weather Guy about 12 years ago on the Mammoth Mountain Forum. He checked out MammothSnowman.com and offered to do a Powder Forecast.
Those forecasts are now responsible for many people getting multiple powder days on Mammoth Mountain over the years. People email us saying they plan their days off around The Mammoth Weather Guy Powder Forecasts.
Ted’s Bio: Always fascinated with the weather, skiing was just a natural extension of my love for snow and rain. I started skiing at age 5, first discovered Mammoth in 1979 as a youth, and have been a regular visitor since the late 80s.