10-23-2019 11 AM – Good morning, here is your Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast & Long Range Outlook.
Over the top of Mammoth at 11,053 Feet there are winds out of the NE to 38 MPH with a temperature of 32 degrees at this time. Down at Main Lodge, it’s a balmy 42 with winds to 24 MPH.
This week we expect a ridge of high pressure to dominate the weather in California and that will warm things up to above-average highs for this time of year. The ridge will shut down any chance of making snow through next Sunday.
By late Sunday an area of low pressure will set up to our east giving Mammoth Mountain a northerly flow with much cooler air. The EU model today brings back more of the cold air it took to our east in the run we looked at yesterday morning.
Today’s outlook would give Mammoth Mountain some great snowmaking very early Monday am into mid-morning on Tuesday with more snowmaking Tuesday night.
The GFS is not even close with the low being well to our east over the Rockies. As of today, we are leaning toward the EC and the cold air moving into the area for a good snowmaking run.
Weather Forecast for this week:
Expect clear skies today through the week with highs in the 50s at Main Lodge. The highs down in Mammoth Lakes will get up into the 60s. The lows this week will be in the upper 30s to low 40s for most locations.
Wind Forecast: Today into tonight we will have NE winds 25-35+ MPH over the higher elevations and ridge tops. Lower elevations below 9000 feet will just see light winds 5-10 MPH out of the NE. Winds back off and turn to the East on Thursdays and Friday.
By Saturday if the EU is right Mammoth Mountain and Mammoth Lakes will be seeing moderate winds and possibly strong winds that could bring power shuts downs in part of Mono County.
The Extended Mammoth Mountain Weather Outlook:
Beyond next Tuesday temperatures will warm up again with possible snowmaking at night with good conditions going to marginal conditions for making snow. Pretty much what we have seen for many of the Falls this last decade.
Weather Guy and I are watching for any signs of snowfall and cold air. You can be sure we will let you know when there is any confidence in a pattern change.
Winter Outlook: Name one winter forecast from any forecaster that came out in the Fall that came true for Mammoth Mountain or any Ski Area? The problem is things change over time and it’s just not possible to look out and tell what is going to happen in the next 6 months.
Any weather beyond 5 days is just an outlook and beyond 10 days is really just what we call fantasy land.
Just say no to the Long Range Hype, it will get you excited and then depressed depending on who you are reading or what model run you’re taking in. 🙂