The Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Powder Forecast – Tuesday November 12th, 2019
from Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Wed 1/13 = 0”
Thu 11/14 = 0”
Fri 11/15 = 0”
Sat 11/16 = 0”
Sun 11/17 = 0”
Mon 11/18 = 0”
Tue 11/19 = 0”
Wed – Sat 11/20– 23 = 1 – 4”
November Snowfall = 0”
November Forecast = 15 – 25”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Wed 11/13 through Sat 11/16 —No snowfall expected all days
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
High pressure will hold for one more day (image below) for another mostly sunny and mild autumn day. Winds should be light as well with late morning and afternoon temps in the 50s.
A passing weak low-pressure system (image below) will move through the Sierra Thursday and Friday (image below) resulting in slightly cooler weather and some clouds at times. The only positive effect of its passage will be slightly better nighttime snow-making conditions into Saturday when high pressure will start to rebuild across the state again.
Long Range (Days 5+):
High pressure (image below) will then rebuild across the state on Sunday and into early next week for a return of the dry and mild weather. The ridge should begin to weaken around Tuesday next week for a likely change in the weather pattern.
The ECM model (image below) then moves an upper level trough southward just of the coast before it becomes stationary just off SoCal by Thursday. It eventually moves it inland through SoCal with Mammoth on the northern fringe of any precipitation.
The other models are different with the GFS showing a more progressive upper level low with only minor over-water trajectory while the Canadian has an inside slider type system. GFS spaghetti ensembles (image below) illustrate the uncertainty with a wide range of both wet and dry solutions. So there is a chance that the dry pattern may end toward the middle/end of next week, but it doesn’t look like a dumper at the moment. WG