Powder Forecast –Tuesday, January 28th, 2020

Ted Schlaepfer CCM  —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy

Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.

Sesame Snow Course

**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)

Wed 1/29 = 0”
Thu 1/30 = 0”
Fri 1/31 =0”
Sat 2/1 =0”
Sun 2/2 =0”
Mon 2/3 = 1 – 3”
Tue 2/4 =0”
Wed – Fri 2/5– 2/7 = 0”

January Snowfall = 13”
January Forecast = 13″

Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:

Wed 1/29 through Sat 2/1—No snowfall expected all days

Forecast Summary:

Short Term (Days 1 – 4):

   Infrared satellite imagery (below) shows a dissipating front moving through central CA today with clouds and some light precipitation across NorCal.  For Mammoth, the front will produce an increase winds along with some passing clouds this afternoon, but no snowfall.

   High pressure off the coast will then build into CA tomorrow and should peak on Friday (image below) and hold through Saturday.   That means fair and warmer weather and some breezy NE winds tomorrow and Thursday.   Temps by Friday and Saturday could reach into the low 40s at McCoy and middle 50s at Canyon for a mid-winter thaw.

Long Range (Days 5+):

     The models (ECM below) then crash an upper-level trough the ridge on Sunday afternoon and into early Monday for an increase in gusty winds, colder temperatures, and possibly some light snowfall before the ridge rebuilds heading back into the middle part of next week (two images below).

  The latest ECM model has enough liquid precipitation for about 3” of snowfall while the GFS (image below) is showing only very light amounts for the forecast period.   The Canadian is showing slightly more (two images below), but still only enough for an inch or two of snowfall.  Overall, this is a fast moving inside slider type system that historically does not result in powder days at Mammoth.

  The longer range guidance says the dry weather will last through next week before the ridge may move westward over the following weekend (image below).  That may allow systems to drop into CA from the North that typically are colder and moisture starved resulting in more wind than snowfall.  The GFS ensemble is forecasting less than half an inch liquid into mid-February (two images below), so large amounts are not likely.  It is not looking good for powder days through the first half of February or longer.  WG