Mammoth Mountain & Eastern Sierra Weather Forecast

Mammoth Mountain & Eastern Sierra Recreational Weather Forecast

10-18-21 @ 9:09 AM Good morning I hope you’re having a great day. There was a nice dusting of snow this morning above 7000 feet. 1-5 inches of fresh snow is what is being reported from Mammoth Mountain down to South Lake. Nice to see the fresh white.

The upcoming week will be mixed with clouds and clear skies at times. There will even be a slight chance of showers on Wednesday and Friday. Snow levels the rest of the week will be above 9500 – to 10,000 feet.

Again not expect much of anything this week. However, if the weather taking place to our north would slip down south a bit that could change.

Beyond Friday the weather just might get very exciting for October, take a look at the 5-10 Day outlook after we update at 11 am this morning. There is a possible moderate to large base storm on the way.

Temperatures: Highs at the Main Lodge and in the Mammoth Lakes Basin will be in the low 30s to and then mid to upper 40s the rest of the week. Night times lows will be in the low to mid-20s tonight and then low 30s for the rest of the week.

For Mammoth Lakes, highs will be in the upper 30s today and then mid to upper 50s into Friday. Nighttime lows will be in the 20’s tonight and then low to mid-30s the rest of the week.

Down in Round Valley and the Bishop areas highs, today will be in the low 60s and then low to mid-70s into next weekend. Lows will be into the upper 30s each night.

Winds: This week expect southwest to west winds 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph over the higher elevations.

Precipitation & Snowfall Forecast: From now into Friday there is just a slight chance of picking up .10 of precipitation. Will be watching the models to see if any of the precipitation to our north sinks south over Mammoth Mountain. That’s happened twice in the last month.

Snowmaking: Looks like great snowmaking conditions tonight into early Tuesday. Then expect marginal conditions to make snow the rest of the week. October has never been a month of consistent snowmaking, it’s hit and miss.

The only reason they have started this early is they got a 48-hour open window to make snow last week. Add in that foot of snow and they made the right move to start blowing.

Today’s Weather Story and The 10 Day Outlook​

12 PM 10-18-2021 #mammothwx #mammothsnowman

The story rolls like this a deep trough of low pressure will user in the several AR bands to our north over the next week. As we get into the weekend it looks like we do get some light moisture with rain and snow with snow levels around 9000 feet or higher.

As we get into next Sunday into Monday there is a very moist AR band showing up making its way into the Mammoth Mountain area and then well south of the Bishop Creek area.

This is what everyone is watching and wondering what amount of snowfall we could receive. At this point, confidence is up that Mammoth Mountain is going to get some decent October snow, but what amounts is anyone’s guess right now.

As of this morning, the ensemble GEFS models have Mammoth Mountain picking up 3-4 inches of QPF while the EPS has 2 – 2.5 inches. The ECMWF operational model has 5-5.5 and the GFS has 11-13 inches of QPF.

We will take a look at all these models and what might happen again on Wednesday and post up then.

Right now it feels like the week before Christmas Day. I sure hope we all get a big fat snow present. 🙂

Snowman – PS For those who want very very detailed technical write-ups. Ted will be back in November doing his Tuesday and Friday posts. He is working on wildfire weather right now.

Here is a day by day look at the next week. This 1st image was for before daybreak today Monday 10-18. You can see the low that brought the snow moving into the region.

On Tuesday you can see the Low from Monday is now over Utah moving into Colorado. With the next large low pressure system looming off the PNW coast. By Wednesday we a could see a slight chance of showers as the low will eject a wave towards the northern Sierra. Mammoth will be stuck to far south to get any beneficial effects.Thursday once again we are in a lull before the next wave comes into the West Coast. By Sunday the Main event starts to take shape. On Wednesday post we will go into much more detail. Looking at some of the output the last few days this model run below from our friends up north was off the charts. 

Mammoth Mountain 6-10 Day Weather Outlook Mammoth Mountain 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook

Fantasy Long Range Weather Outlook

EPS is showing ridging out at the end of the month with a new low lurking in the Gulf of Alaska. This model goes out to 16 days.

The GEFS has done a good job with the long-range outlooks over the last 6 weeks. Here is the most current fantasy run out to 840 hours.

This run shows us ending our 21-day cycle of cool unsettled weather ending with the next 21-day cycle being on the dry side.

Right at the end of the run below the next wet cycle moves in for a nice big refresher. (Yes this is a fantasy outlook and not a forecast folks. I do agree with a drying trend to start the first half of November.)

  

 ECMWF Seasonal Ensemble Mean – Monthly Update from 10-1-2021

Satellite Images

NOAA GOES 17 Full Pacific Satellite View
NOAA GOES 17 Full Pacific Satellite View
Goes 17 West Coast Satellite View
Goes 17 West Coast Satellite View
PNA Forecast Chart
PNA Forecast Chart
Arctic Oscillation Forecast
Arctic Oscillation Forecast

The MOJO Outlook

MOJO - NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (NCPE)
MOJO – NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (NCPE)
MOJO - NCEP Global Bias-Corrected Ensemble Forecast System (NCPB)
MOJO – NCEP Global Bias-Corrected Ensemble Forecast System (NCPB)
MOJO - Climate Forecast System (NCFS)
MOJO – Climate Forecast System (NCFS)
MOJO - ECMWF Forecasts System (ECMF)
MOJO – ECMWF Forecasts System (ECMF)
MOJO - CMET Canadian Forecast
MOJO – CMET Canadian Forecast

MJO Phase and Temperatures

Mojo Temperature Composites (OND)
Mojo Temperature Composites (OND)
Mojo Temperature Composites (NDJ)
Mojo Temperature Composites (NDJ)
Mojo Temperature Composites (DJF)
Mojo Temperature Composites (DJF)
Mojo Temperature Composites (JFM)
Mojo Temperature Composites (JFM)

MJO Phase and Precipitation

Mojo Temperature Composites (OND)
Mojo Temperature Composites (OND)
Mojo Precipitation Composites (NDJ)
Mojo Precipitation Composites (NDJ)
Mojo Precipitation Composites (DJF)
Mojo Precipitation Composites (DJF)
Mojo Precipitation Composites (JFM)
Mojo Precipitation Composites (JFM)

Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather Posts

Who Are We?

Steve Taylor – Mammoth Snowman – Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill. 

Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with Video & Photo Blog report. (No YouTube back then). Facebook got added to the fold back in 2008 and then the Facebook Group in 2016. 

Reports, videos, and photos from the website have been featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth, along with AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News.

Ted Schlaepfer – Mammoth WeatherGuy – The Powder Forecast – Posted Tuesday and Fridays at 5 PM November into Mid May. These forecasts are now responsible for many people getting multiple powder days on Mammoth Mountain over the years.  

Ted’s Bio: Ted has been a full-time Meteorologist (CCM) for the past 25+ years. He has always been fascinated with the weather,” skiing was just a natural extension of my love for snow and rain. I started skiing at age 5,  first discovered Mammoth in 1979 as a youth, and have been a regular visitor since the late ’80s.”.

Here is the link to The WeatherGuys Powder Forecast Page. 

Click Here to Learn More About the People Who Make MammothSnowman.com a Reality