Mammoth Mountain & Eastern Sierra Weather Forecast
Mammoth Mountain & Eastern Sierra Recreational Weather Forecast
10-23-21 11 AM Storm Update
Weather Summary: Good Saturday morning everyone, it’s storm watch weekend as we watch a deep low that is tapped into a very juicy AR band move towards the area.
Taking a look at the upcoming storm that is forecasted for Sunday and Monday. The AR band is still on track to pound Mammoth Mountain with a ton of moisture.
As of today areas above 9500 feet look to pick up 2-3+ feet of heavy wet base snow. Snow ratios will be low so the snow that we get will be perfect base snow to help get the season started.
If the jet stream decides to sink south a bit then the snowfall numbers would go way up. While that is not in the forecast at this time I am praying for a change. 🙂
The big question I have myself is how much snow could the Main Lodge pick up?
That all depends on how fast the snow levels come down. As of this post, it’s looking like that will happen within a couple of hours of the midnight Sunday night time frame.
Expect heavy wet snow in the 5:1 range to start. By Monday AM snow levels come down and areas above 9000 feet should be around the 8:1 snowfall ratio.
Updated at 8:25 AM: Here are the estimated snowfall numbers that might be expected by Monday afternoon. Canyon Lodge 5-10 inches, Main Lodge 15-20, MC Coy Station 20-30, Summit 11,000 feet 36-48+.
As we get more details this afternoon I will update these numbers as the fine details come in this Saturday.
Just remember this is just a forecast, never count on inches of snowfall before they fall on the ground or you end up disappointed.
Temperatures: For today Saturday and into Sunday highs at the Main Lodge and in the Mammoth Lakes Basin will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Nighttime lows will be in the low to mid-30s through Sunday and will drop below freezing early Monday before sunrise. Monday night lows get into the upper 20s.
For Mammoth Lakes, highs will be in the low 50s Saturday and then upper 40s into Sunday. Nighttime lows will be in the low to mid-30s through the weekend.
Down in Round Valley and the Bishop areas highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s through the weekend, lows will be back into the 40s each night, but drop back to the 30s Monday night.
Winds: Today on Mammoth Mountain expect a southwest wind of 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
On Sunday into Sunday night expect strong winds from the southwest at 30 to 35 mph increasing to 40 to 45 mph. Winds could gust as high as 70-88+ mph over the top.
Winds in lower elevations will be moderate at times with some stronger gusts.
48 Hour Precipitation & Snowfall Forecast: Here are the snowfall numbers that might be expected by Monday afternoon. Canyon Lodge 5-10 inches, Main Lodge 8-16, Mc Coy 16-20+, Summit 11,00 feet 24-36.
As we get more details this morning I will update these numbers as the fine details come in this Saturday.
Snowmaking: No snowmaking unit Monday night into Tuesday morning when lows get into the low 20s. Tuesday into Wednesday morning lows will be in the upper 20s to low 30s for marginal snowmaking. As of now, we are waiting for the next big cold wave for a big run on snowmaking.
Today’s Weather Story and The 10 Day Outlook
Fantasy Long Range Weather Outlook
10-23-2021 9 AM – We just had a fantasy forecast come thru, the last 21 days were picked by the EPS model back in September. Looks to be warm and dry for a bit now.
The Fantasy outlook period is starting to look interesting after we get past the ridging that is forecast to develop later this week.
The EU models want to get us cold with some snow in the way off outlook as well. Not a big fan of CFS, but that model has above-normal snowfall for November.
**Right now I am looking to upgrade to Weather Bell again so we can post all the long long-range images for your enjoyment.
As I get more monthly subscribers to the website we can add more of these paid subscriptions that offer better forecast images.
If you can, please consider supporting this website, the time and images here are worth the money spent.
ECMWF Seasonal Ensemble Mean – Monthly Update from 10-1-2021
Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather Posts
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Steve Taylor – Mammoth Snowman – Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill.
Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with Video & Photo Blog report. (No YouTube back then). Facebook got added to the fold back in 2008 and then the Facebook Group in 2016.
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Ted’s Bio: Ted has been a full-time Meteorologist (CCM) for the past 25+ years. He has always been fascinated with the weather,” skiing was just a natural extension of my love for snow and rain. I started skiing at age 5, first discovered Mammoth in 1979 as a youth, and have been a regular visitor since the late ’80s.”.
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