Powder Forecast –Tuesday February 1st, 2022
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Wed 2/2 = 0”
Thu 2/3 = 0”
Fri 2/4 = 0”
Sat 2/5 – 0”
Sun 2/6 = 0”
Mon 2/7 = 0”
Tue 2/8 = 0”
Wed – Fri 2/9 – 2/11 = 0”
February Snowfall = 0”
February Forecast = 10 – 30”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Wed 2/2 through Sat 2/5 – No snowfall expected all days.
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The infrared satellite image (below) today shows the cold front that moved through overnight is now positioned southward in Arizona. High pressure off the coast will slowly build eastward over the next few days, otherwise northerly jet flow will produce winds gusty tomorrow and continued winds up top on Thursday with light winds expected by Friday.
Friday is when the high-pressure ridge is forecast to build over the state (image below) and warmer temperatures should trend through the weekend under continued fair skies.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance is still looking dismal through the first half of February with still no hope until the latter part of the month.
High pressure will continue to build strongly into the state early next week (image below) and hold through the end of next week (two images below) per the ECM model. The other models are similar with the dry forecast. It will also get unseasonably warm next week with spring conditions likely on the lower part of the mountain and softer snow up top.
The longer-range GFS (image below) and ECM ensemble means do move the ridge westward a bit heading into mid-month, but that would likely only allow more inside slider type systems and probably not any significant snowstorms.
Overall, the ECM EPS is only showing very light amounts on the back end of the 15-day period (image below) and not enough for any powder days. It looks like the first half of February will continue the dry streak.
The fantasy range climate models are still suggesting that snowfall could return by the last week of the month or early March. Both the CFS and ECM are showing it, although neither model is showing major storminess yet.
And I actually believe those models this time because you don’t have more than 50-55 days of dry weather even in the driest of winters. It has now been 32 days. Going back to 1950, the longest mid-winter dry spell for San Francisco was 56 days in 2014-15 with only two other seasons in the 40-day range (1962-63 @ 42 days and 2011-12 @ 49 days).
So a very long dry spell like the current one that is expected to last near 50 days (if dry weather continues through mid-February) is not very common, but also no unprecedented. And I would not be surprised if change back to wet is significant too as everything eventually balances out. WG