Powder Forecast –Friday April 1st, 2022
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Sat 4/2 = 0”
Sun 4/3 = 0”
Mon 4/4 = 0”
Tue 4/5 = 0”
Wed 4/6 = 0”
Thu 4/7 = 0”
Fri 4/8 = 0”
Sat – Mon 4/9 – 4/11 = 0 – 6”
March Snowfall = 15 – 25”
March Forecast = 0”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Sat 4/2 through Tue 4/5 – No snowfall expected all days except for a chance for a late afternoon or evening rain/snow shower Saturday and Sunday.
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The infrared satellite image (below) today shows high pressure has built into the state for fair and dry weather. Temps are seasonable with spring conditions on the Canyon side of the mountain.
A couple of weak weather systems will move through the area tomorrow and again on Sunday (image below) resulting in clouds and a chance for late afternoon or evening rain/snow showers, otherwise dry weather will continue through Tuesday next week and longer.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance is not showing any changes in the forecast since the last update with spring conditions next week followed by a good chance for a return of winter conditions by the following week.
Models are still in agreement that stronger high pressure will build into the state around the middle part of next week (image below) and should hold through at least next Friday or possibly Saturday. That means about 3-4 days of spring conditions are likely on the entire mountain.
After that, the longer-range fantasy guidance is still favoring a return of winter conditions by the following week with the latest ECM model (image below) moving a deep trough in CA at the back end of the forecast period. That solution is fairly well supported by the ECM EPS and GFS ensemble mean (two images below) that is also showing a trough developing along the West Coast around the same time frame.
Models differ a bit with the forecast in the 11-15 day range with the GFS ensemble (image below) sliding the trough slightly eastward around mid-week while the ECM EPS (two images below) keeps the trough back farther westward. The ECM pattern would produce a better chance for continued storms while the GFS suggests a break.
The GFS ensemble (image below) lifts the jet slightly northward at the back end of the period while developing a more zonal flow that would allow any potential storms to pick up moisture, although they could stay too far north. The ECM EPS is similar, but has the jet slightly farther southward versus the GFS ensemble.
The QPF from both model suites is mostly similar with the GFS (image below) showing about an inch for the period while the ECM EPS (two images below) is showing slightly less. Thus, the models are not favoring big storms right now. But they are favoring enough snowfall for powder conditions sometime starting as early as April 11th with a better chance over the following week.
The longer range ECM climate model is showing a continued long-wave trough along the West Coast during the 15-22 day time frame. It keeps most of the precipitation into NorCal (image below), but does have “average” precipitation for Mammoth that is around 6” of snowfall for this time of year. So even though Canyon may be closed, it doesn’t mean that powder season is over. WG