Recreational Weather for Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra
August 8th, 2022 @ 4 PM Good afternoon, lot’s of heavy showers and thunder storms are going off at this time in the Eastern Sierra.
For this evening there will be continued big downpours and then overnight drying with a return to the big thunders storms possible on Tuesday.
If you’re going to be out for an adventure on Tuesday, expect a 50% chance of storms in the Eastern Sierra on Tuesday with very heavy rain under any storms that do fire off.
Starting on Wednesday the area will just see isolated T Storm that will not contain heavy rain.
Next Weekend is looking perfect with just isolated storms and about average highs in all areas.
**When Thunder Roars Go Indoors** If you get stuck out on a hike or ride in the Thunder Storms here is some information on what to do.
Here are the links to the specific highs, lows, and wind speeds for many of the major recreation points in the Eastern Sierra: Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge, Top of Mammoth Mountain, Mammoth Lakes, June Lake, Crowley Lake, Toms Place, Rock Creek Lake, Bishop & Mill Pond, South Lake.
Current Satellite View
10 Day Outlook
8-8-2022 @ 3:34 PM – A cut off low off the coast and the 4 corners high will combine to keep the wet monsoonal flow going for the next few days. Later in the week the low starts to lift to the north and that will cut off the deep moisture flow.
Expect some build ups still around Thursday into the weekend with some isolated T Storms going off. If you’re coming up next weekend the weather looks perfect as of today’s post.
Next weeks pattern days 8 into 10 have the continental high shifting westward and heating the area up again. Confidence in the pattern after day 5 is a bit suspect this afternoon. We will take a look again on Thursday.
EPS 500 Height Anomaly Chart out 240 hours
EPS 10-Day Temperature Anomaly Chart
EPS 10 Day 24 Hour Precipitation Chart
EPS 45 Day Ensemble Mean
8-8-2022 @ 3 PM This is the EPS 45-Day Height Anomaly GIF
Looking at the model run below it goes almost out the start of Fall and there are still none of what I call the death ridges in site for the West. It does look like more muggy days and then some warmer and dry Summer days are left.
But still no extreme high pressure ridges like we have seen the last two years. There is still time for that to change but at this point I would not expect the Summer to end anything like the last 2 years.
The big question at this point that nobody wants to really talk about today is how will the wild fire season in California play out before the first snows fall?
As long as the Monsoonal flow continues with the wet storms the chance for big fires will be suppressed. What happens after that gets cut off is anybody’s guess.
On the model run below we do see a monsoonal flow still in early September so let’s hope that flow remains nice a wet.
EPS 45 Day Temperature Anomaly
EPS 45 Day Precipitation Anomaly Chart
ECMWF & CFS v2 Long Range Seasonal Outlook
for July 2022
7-7-22 @ 5:47 PM Here are the most recent long range fantasy Euro & CFS outlook data.
Looking at the information the EU model as a neutral Nino state for the upcoming snow season. With December and January having above average precipitation.
Got to take it all with a grain of salt as the CFS v2 wants to have us in the weak La Nina state with well below normal precipitation through December and then normal in January.
Of course this is all long range fantasy data that can be fun to look at on a hot Summer day. Let’s hope and pray that over the next few months both these models go green for the wet month of late 22 and and 2023.
**The new Euro data comes out each month around the 5th of the month. The next update on this data will be around August 7th here at the Mammoth Snowman website.
ENSO - La Nina & El Nino
Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather Posts
Who Are We?
Steve Taylor – Mammoth Snowman – Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill.
Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with Video & Photo Blog report. (No YouTube back then). Facebook got added to the fold back in 2008 and then the Facebook Group in 2016.
Reports, videos, and photos from the website have been featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth, along with AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News.