Recreational Weather for Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra
August 16th, 2022 @ 9 AM – Been some amazing weather up here in the Eastern Sierra since my last weather update.
Was riding up chair 2 last Friday and I would say the view out the to Minarets was the clearest I had ever seen it, just amazing.
As forecast, the last monsoonal flow did exit the area over the weekend with clouds reappearing yesterday.
The next monsoonal flow that is now moving into the area is much weaker as it will be minus the cut-off low we had off the coast during the last cycle.
For today there is a 30% chance of thunderstorms introduced to the high country with that chance heading into the 60-70% range on Wednesday into Thursday.
Any storms that go off the next few days will not have the abundant moisture of the last cycle. Rainfall amounts look to be under a quarter inch in the rain bucket in areas that happen to be under a T Storm.
If you’re coming up for an adventure the next few days just beware of any build-ups and if thunder roars go indoors or take cover if you happen to be out for a hike.
Our advice is on Wednesday and Thursday get out early to your back before the build-ups mess up your plans.
Temperatures in the Back Country at 8900 feet (Main Lodge and the Mammoth Lakes Basin) will be in the upper 60s to low 70s this week. Overnight lows through next weekend will be in the mid-50s.
The Weekend Outlook looks great as of now with clear skies, highs in the low 70s at the Resort 8900 foot level with lighter SW winds at times.
I will be updating the lower section of this weather page at 11 AM today, so check back at lunch for fresh charts and data. Snowman
**When Thunder Roars Go Indoors** If you get stuck out on a hike or ride in the Thunder Storms here is some information on what to do.
Here are the links to the specific highs, lows, and wind speeds for many of the major recreation points in the Eastern Sierra: Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge, Top of Mammoth Mountain, Mammoth Lakes, June Lake, Crowley Lake, Toms Place, Rock Creek Lake, Bishop & Mill Pond, South Lake.
Current Satellite View
10 Day Outlook Data
EPS 500 Height Anomaly Chart out 240 hours
EPS 10-Day Temperature Anomaly Chart
EPS 10 Day 24 Hour Precipitation Chart
EPS 45 Day Ensemble Mean
8-16-2022 @ 11:11 AM Fanasty 45-Day Outlook from the EPS
Looking at the model run below it goes out to the start of Fall and there are still none of what I call the death ridges in site for the West. It does look like more muggy days and then some warmer to hot and dry Summer days are left, but nothing extreme like the last couple of years.
Precipitation wise it appears there are a couple of monsaonal flows left and then some kind of system brings rain around the 21st of September. More years than not there is some type of low that moves thru around that magic date of the 21st. Often the highest peaks like Bloody and the Whites end up with a dusting.
The big question at this point that nobody wants to really talk about is how will the wildfire season in California play out before the first snows fall. What we really could use now is a second very wet monsoonal flow. Let’s hope and pray one of these cycles juices up for some decent rain.
EPS 45 Day Temperature Anomaly
EPS 45 Day Precipitation Chart
ECMWF & CFS v2 Long Range Seasonal Outlook
for August 2022
**The new Euro data comes out each month around the 5th of the month. The next update on this data will be around September 7th here at the Mammoth Snowman website.
ENSO - La Nina & El Nino
Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather Posts
Who Are We?
Steve Taylor – Mammoth Snowman – Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill.
Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with Video & Photo Blog report. (No YouTube back then). Facebook got added to the fold back in 2008 and then the Facebook Group in 2016.
Reports, videos, and photos from the website have been featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth, along with AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News.