Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast & Discussion


Good evening, it looks like the storm door will remain open for a couple more weeks or a bit longer, before there is a mid-winter break from the endless stream of mid-latitude storm systems.

In the process of this storm cycle, Mammoth Mountain will pick up lots of new snowfall on top of what has already fallen.

Do beware that this type of pattern brings with it heavier Sierra Cement snow, not light dry powder snow. However, there is often a topping of drier powder at the end of each AR event. And yes sometimes it rains on the snowpack like it did last Friday into Saturday. 

The next upstream system that is well off the coast still is being called a bomb cyclone due to its rapid intense development. By the time that system reaches Mammoth Mountain, it will be in a weakened state vs what we are seeing right now, but will still bring snowfall amounts in the 1-3 foot range from Little Eagle to the top of Mammoth Mountain.

Beyond that, there is a break forecasted for Friday, yahoo, and then more snow for Saturday into next Tuesday, double yahoo.

If you’re out on the hill this Wednesday expect cloudy skies with moderate snowfall possible in the morning with several inches of fresh snow. It will be windy with a southwest wind of 15 to 30 mph increasing to 45 to 60 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 75 mph over higher elevations. I would expect lots of lift to be on hold once the wind picks up on Wednesday.

On Thursday expect moderate to heavy snowfall with strong winds and highs into the mid to upper 20s.

By Friday there will be a break with clear blue skies expected with highs in the 20s and with much lighter winds.

The Weekend Outlook Calls for Snow to develop later on Saturday, hopefully, the snow and strong winds hold off until late in the day. That snow cycle looks to go all the way into late next Tuesday.

Happy Real Winter Everyone!


PS: Get the Mammoth Weather Guys Powder Outlook at this link

Mammoth Mountain Weather Data

Updated – 1-3-2023 – 5:32 PM

In the gif below you can see the AR streams as they come across the pacific and right into California. This type of pattern leads to multiple storms over a 3-week cycle.

This pattern is something you would expect to see when there is an El Nino that is set up to the east base.  When they are west base they are an El Nino Modoki as we had in 2016. In the Modoki El Ninos Mammoth gets skunked.

All the models are in agreement with around 2-3 feet of new possible snowfall by next Friday morning. Next week the GFS is much wetter than the ECM with double the snowfall amounts. That means confidence in how the pattern evolves and who gets the majority of the moisture is still up in the air as far as Mammoth Mountain goes. 

ECM 500 Anomaly Ensemble Mean out 10 Days
ECM Mean Snowfall Gif out 198 Hours
EPS Weeklies Precipitation Outlook out 45 Days - Notice the big break late January into mid February

12-8-2022 @ 10 AM – The new run of the EPS Seasonal is out and it continues to show the trend of an average to above-average winter for snowfall. So good vibes moving forward as we continue with this snow season.

See you out on the hill, Snowman

Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather Posts

Who Are We?

Steve Taylor – Mammoth Snowman Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill. 

Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to in 2004 with Video & Photo Blog report. (No YouTube back then). Facebook got added to the fold back in 2008 and then the Facebook Group in 2016. 

Reports, videos, and photos from the website have been featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth, along with AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News.

Ted Schlaepfer – Mammoth WeatherGuy – The Powder Forecast – Posted Tuesday and Fridays at 5 PM November into Mid May. These forecasts are now responsible for many people getting multiple powder days on Mammoth Mountain over the years.  

Ted’s Bio: Ted has been a full-time Meteorologist (CCM) for the past 25+ years. He has always been fascinated with the weather,” skiing was just a natural extension of my love for snow and rain. I started skiing at age 5,  first discovered Mammoth in 1979 as a youth, and have been a regular visitor since the late ’80s.”.

Here is the link to The WeatherGuys Powder Forecast Page. 

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