Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast & Discussion
January 7th @ 3 PM – Good afternoon, time for a good old dump of heavy snow over Mammoth Mountain and the Town of Mammoth Lakes.
Currently, the temperature up top is 11 with SSW wind @ 55 MPH with gusts to 62+ MPH at times. Down at Main Lodge, the temperature is 21 with an SW wind @ 3 MPH gusting to 21 MPH. Down at Canyon, the temperature is 28 with a reading of 17 degrees at Little Eagle Lodge.
If you’re out on the hill on Sunday there will be moderate to strong winds with some light to moderate snowfall in the early morning hour turning to snow shower by mid morning. Over night snowfall total look to be in the 6-10 inch range with an additional 3-5 inches falling early on Sunday morning.
Temperatures will be into the mid-20s to upper 20s with SW winds @ 20-30 MPH with gusts in excess of 55 MPH over the higher elevations.
For Monday into Tuesday expect the next full-on Pineapple connection to move through the area. The forecast, for now, has the AR band moving right over Mammoth Mountain and over Mammoth Lakes.
That setup would bring excessive snowfall rates to not only the mountain but down into town and onto 395 by Tuesday. Snow levels will be high on Monday at 7500-8000 before crashing down overnight into Tuesday. (read more below)
**Do beware that this type of weather pattern brings with it heavier Sierra Cement snow, not light dry powder snow.
Mammoth Mountain Weather Synopsis / Forecast & Data
January 7th, 2023 @ 2:38 PM – The mid-latitude storm door remains open as the next two systems move in Tonight / Sunday and then Monday into early Wednesday morning. In the process storm one, comes thru with 7-9 inches possible tonight and 3-5 inches of additional snow through the early morning hours after sunrise.
For Monday into Tuesday the next full-on Pineapple connection comes in with possibly 6-8 inches of water content for the higher elevations. As of now, models have the AR band moving right over Mammoth Mountain and the Eastern Sierra.
That setup would bring excessive snowfall rates to not only the mountain but down into town and onto 395 by late Monday / early Tuesday. The forecast for the AR band will most likely waver a bit but you should be prepared to see big snowfall numbers into early Wednesday.
Snow levels tonight into Sunday will be down to around 5500 feet or halfway down the Sherwin Grade with an accumulation of snow on the road expected from Toms Place north.
Snow levels will come up on Monday to around 7500 to 8000 feet, so a mix of snow and rain in town with all snow from Canyon Lodge up. By Monday night into very early Tuesday snow levels will come all the way down to Tom’s place and possibly down the Sherwin grade a bit at the end of the event.
This pattern looks to last up until around the 16th – 20th of January. That would complete the classic 21-day wet cycle like you have seen over the years here in Mammoth.
Below is an image of the Current Strong Jet Stream that’s driving the AR Train into the West Coast.
Below is an image of the Strong Jet Stream as it’s plowing into the West Coast on Tuesday with a very strong low and a high level AR plume that is right over Mammoth Mountain.
The gif below shows the total column water or what you hear as the AR rivers of water flowing out in the ocean. You can see California gets several more hits over the next week.
This pattern looks to last up until around the 20th of January when a ridge will move into the area for the first big break in the action. At that time the mid latitude jet look like it will come to an end. That would complete the classic 21-day wet cycles we have seen over the years here in Mammoth.
Way off in the ultra Fantasy Outlook period the Eastern Sierra looks to enter a period of cooler than normal weather with snowfall returning to a none Sierra cement version.
That pattern could bring a bonanza of powder with very low snow levels, however it could also bring colder and drier systems as they slide in the great basin. Fun to look at the longer range but it can change fast like the forecasted dry spell for the holidays that went ultra wet over night just a couple weeks back now.
EPS Weeklies Precipitation Anomaly out 31 Days
EPS Weeklies Precipitation out 31 Days
EPS Weeklies Temperature Anomaly out 31 Days
1-7-2022 – The new run of the EPS Seasonal is out and it continues to show the trend of an average to above-average winter for snowfall. So good vibes moving forward as we continue with this snow season.
See you out on the hill, Snowman