Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast & Discussion

February 20th, 2023 @ 3:33 PM – It’s been a great Holiday weekend for you Bluebird Lovers, now it’s time to flip the coin and roll with some wintertime snowfall.

There are two systems that will affect the area over the next 1-10 days with possibly more to follow. The storm track will be coming out of the northwest with lots of cold air and just enough moisture to bring some epic high-ratio powder action to Mammoth Mountain.

The fun all starts on Tuesday morning when the winds will start to howl ahead of the first wave of snowfall expected on Tuesday night.

That next wave of snowfall will move in later on Wednesday and last into Thursday with possibly heavier snowfall on Thursday night.

Expect more snow showers Friday according to the ECMWF model we like in the shorter range more snowfall for Saturday.

If you’re going to be out on the Hill on Tuesday, expect temperatures in the low to mid-30s. The wind forecast calls for a high wind warning with a southwest wind of 35 to 55 mph, with gusts as high as 85 – 100 mph possible over higher elevations. Wind gusts at the tops of Chair 16 over to 1 look to be in the 60-70 MPH range so expect lift closures.

For Wednesday there will be light snow showers with 1-2 inches possible. Temperatures will be cold with highs in the mid-teens along with a west wind of 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. 

By Thursday, the Snow Showers will be light to moderate with several inches of snow possible during the daytime hours. Temperatures will be cold with highs in the mid-teens along with a west wind of 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph.

On Friday there will be more snow showers likely during the daytime hours after a decent night of snowfall. Temperatures will be cold with highs in the mid-teens along with light to moderate winds.

The weekend outlook has the storm system moving south and possibly ending the snowfall by Saturday morning. However, the timing of the system moving south is in question this far out.

It does look like Sunday and then next Monday there will be mostly clear skies as the area will be in between the 2 weather systems heading our way.


Light and Dry Powder on the Way this Week!
Light and Dry Powder is on the Way this Week!


Mammoth Mountain 5-10-Day Extended Outlook

2-18-23 – As of this post, you can expect a new series of storms to be moving through the Mammoth Mountain area starting late next Tuesday into Friday with a break next weekend and then more snow the following week possibly into early March.

Looking at the newest data this morning this new weather pattern looks to be capable of bringing in some epic light and dry powder up on Mammoth Mountain. Over snowfall accumulations will be on the lower levels with 1-2 feet of snow possible in the 5-10 Day outlook period.

With all the cold air in place and with the track these systems will be taking, you can expect some light and dry Alta-like powder out on the mountain off the groomed runs. The groomers will turn to a nice soft and quiet mid winter packed powder.


5-10 Day - ECMWF 500 Height Anomaly
5-10 Day - ECMWF Snowfall

11-16 Day Super Fantasy Long-Range Discussion

2-18-23 – The troughing off the west coast continues to show up right through day 16 on the EPS model below. More cold powder chances would be in the offering. Yes, it’s way too FAR out to nail down the details and any amounts. 

11-16 Day ECMWF EPS 500 Height Anomaly
11-16 Day ECMWF EPS 500 Height Anomaly

Extreme Fantasy Outlook Model Data

2-18-23 – Here is the updated data for this Saturday morning. The EPS keeps winter going into March 8th and then precipitation chances die off quickly. The GEFS keeps the snow show going at times right up to the last day of winter on March 21st, 2023. Please note none of the fantasy outlooks have a big AR hook up just nice cold air with light to moderate amounts of fresh powder. 

ECMWF EPS 500 Height Anomaly February 27th to March 21st
10 Day Day Snowfall ECMWF EPS 500 Height Anomaly
11-20 Day Snowfall ECMWF EPS
GEFS High Anopmply Chart February 27th to March 21st
GEFS Snowfall February 27th to March 21st
ENSO Outlook – Updated on February 20th

Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather Posts