Mammoth Mountain & Eastern Sierra Recreational Weather
Sunday, June 23rd, 2024 @ 10 AM – Good morning; it’s a gorgeous day up here in the Eastern Sierra. Currently, at the top of Mammoth Mountain, the temperature is 52.8 degrees with a South wind at 29 MPH, gusting to 38 MPH. Down at the Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge, the temperature this morning is at 64, with a WSW wind at 5 to 1 MPH and gusting to 16 MPH.
Here is what you can expect in the High Country into next Thursday: Skies look to remain mostly clear on Sunday, with a 10-30% chance of afternoon Thunderstorms on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
Mid-day temperatures at the 8900-foot level (Main Lodge / Lake Mary) will be in the low 70s throughout the period, with a 68 expected by Thursday. Overnight lows in the high country will be comfortable in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Winds on Mammoth Mountain and over the higher elevations will be SW at 5-15 MPH, with gusts up to 20-30 MPH during the afternoon hours through the upcoming week.
Temperatures in Mammoth Lakes will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with nighttime lows in the mid-50s. Today, winds will be out of SW at 5-10 MPH, with gusts to 15-20 MPH at times.
Today, midday temperatures from Crowley Lake to Toms Place will be in the mid-to-upper 80s, with overnight lows into the low to mid-50s.
For Bishop to Mill Pond, Summer is on. Mid-afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the mid-to-upper 90s, with overnight lows in the mid-50s. Expect afternoon winds of 5-10 MPH, with gusts up to 15 MPH possible.
Snowman
MSLP GIF out 144 hours – You can see the grey over the Eastern Sierra High Country Monday into Wednesday. That spot of green is the 10-30% chance of any area getting some light rain. By Thursday / Friday the model has the area drying out again.
(MSLP) is the atmospheric pressure at the mean sea level. It is usually shown on radio, television, newspapers, or Internet weather reports.
Mammoth / Eastern Sierra Weather Story: Warm days and nights will continue as the area is currently under the influence of a high-pressure ridge. Watch the 500 MB anomaly GIF below. You can see the ridge starts to get pushed to the east from the next low off the Pacific Northwest coast.
The ridge will be far enough east that Mammoth and the Eastern Sierra region should start to cool off by around next Thursday.
The end of next week shows average temperatures, with Mammoth in the mid to upper 70s and Bishop in the mid to upper 90s.
By late the following weekend, June 30th / July 1st, heights will begin to rise again as a large ridge looks to try to build off the west coast.
As of this morning, the ECM keeps that ridge out to sea, and it fades by around July 4th as another low is showing up off of the Pacific Northwest coast. Looking at the fantasy long-range 45-day run, you can now see that July is not looking as hot as has been forecasted.
Of course, all of this is subject to change. For those of you newer to these longer-term discussions and weather models, please realize that beyond about day 7, confidence in the forecasts becomes much lower. I have seen models do a complete 180-degree switch on their longer-range outlooks overnight.
Snowman
15-Day ECM 500mb Anomaly GIF: Below is the entire 15-day run of the ECMWF Ensemble model. I use this model to tell the Mammoth Weather Story you just read above. Compared to the other models, this solution has been right more often than not over the years.
Temperature Anomaly GIF: Tempratures remain above average for the foreseeable future. However, as of today, no major heat waves are in the forecast, just good old warm summer weather. Enjoy 🙂
*The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.
The Wind Forecast GIF – Looking at the ECMWF wind forecast, wind speeds over the next week will be gusty during the afternoon and early evening hours. That’s when you can expect SW winds at 10-25+ MPH over the high country and wind-prone areas of the Eastern Sierra.
Yep, the wind forecast is about the same all Summer Long.
Jet Stream – This is the ECMWF ENS Run of the Jet Stream at 200 hPa.
Days 16 – 45 ECMWF ENS Run – This is the long-range ultra fantasy model run. These runs are good for looking at upcoming trends in the overall weather pattern.
Summer 2024 & Longer Range Outlooks: Expect above-average temperatures with a below-average monsoon season for the Summer Weather Season. I am not 100% convinced we will be as dry as models have shown during the spring.
Now that it’s June, I’d like to start looking at the ECMWF Seasonal Precipitation Model runs out six months. Below, you will find the 500mb Height anomaly for each month into November. Those will be followed the the precipitation anomaly images for each of those months.
Last Update from DWP Precipitation for Mammoth Pass & the Eastern Sierra
El Nino - La Nina - Neutral Watch
* Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather is updated several times a week by local Steve Taylor. The goal is to provide detailed weather forecasts presented in an easy-to-read format. This isn’t a Hype, one-and-done model-run website. It’s just the basic facts from how I see it after 40 years of being involved in the local weather and recreation. And yes, I use Weather Bell for my forecasting data.
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Author – Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman – Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill.
Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with Video & Photo Blog reports. (No YouTube back then). Facebook got added to the fold back in 2008 and then the Facebook Group in 2016.
Reports, videos, and photos from the website have been featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth and Bishop, along with KTLA, AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News.
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