Mammoth Mountain & Eastern Sierra Weather from the Snowman
Thursday, June 27th, 2024 @ 10 AM Good morning. It’s a gorgeous morning up here in the Eastern Sierra with partly cloudy skies.
The weather feels a bit tropical, with the increased humidity still in the area today. Look for these muggy days to end over the next few days. With warm to hot temperatures with drier air for the 4th of July Holiday Week expected of this post.
At the top of Mammoth Mountain, the temperature is 45 degrees, and the south wind is at 40 MPH, gusting to 47 MPH. Down at the Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge, the temperature this morning is 57, with an SW wind at 5 to 25 MPH.
On Tuesday, there were a few buildups but no rain in the area. From about Crowley Lake down to Bishop, there was a lot of haze from wildfires burning in the foothills above Fresno to our west. Expect more haze during the afternoon hours the next couple of days in the same areas. 
Here is what you can expect in the High Country into next Monday: Skies will be mostly clear, with zero chances for thunderstorms over the next 3-5 days. Expect a warm-up to start around next Monday.
Mid-day temperatures at the 8900-foot level (Main Lodge / Lake Mary) will be in the upper 60s to low 70s throughout the period. Overnight lows in the high country will be comfortable in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Winds on Mammoth Mountain and over the higher elevations will be SW at 5-15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH during the afternoon hours into Sunday. Expect stronger gusts over Sierra ridges and at the top of Mammoth Mountain.
Temperatures in Mammoth Lakes will be in the mid to upper 70s, with nighttime lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds will be out of SW at 5-10 MPH, with gusts to 15 MPH at times.
Midday temperatures from Crowley Lake to Toms Place will be in the mid-80s, with overnight lows into the low to mid-50s.
For Bishop to Mill Pond, Summer is on. Mid-afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the mid-to-upper 90s, with overnight lows in the mid-50s. Expect afternoon winds of 5-10 MPH, with gusts up to 15 MPH possible.
MSLP GIF out 144 hours. Into Sunday, it will be clear and dry with average temperatures, and then a slow warming trend will begin with more dry conditions.
(MSLP) is the atmospheric pressure at the mean sea level. It is usually shown on radio, television, newspapers, or Internet weather reports.
Mammoth / Eastern Sierra Weather Story: Looking like a nice weekend with about average heights in the area with no thunderstorms in the forecast. The longer range outlook now has the next ridge of high pressure that was forecast to be out to sea, moving into northern and central California next week.
Here in the Eastern Sierra conditions will turn hot again in the lower elevations with lower 80s for the high country. If you’re coming up I would bring a fan with you as there is no AC in most of the Mammoth Lakes accommodations.
Snowman
15-Day ECM 500mb Anomaly GIF: Below is the entire 15-day run of the ECMWF ensemble model. I use this model to tell the Mammoth Weather Story you just read above. Compared to the other models, this solution has been effective more often than not over the years.
Temperature Anomaly GIF: Temperatures remain above average for the foreseeable future. However, as of today, no major heat waves are forecast; it is just good old warm summer weather. Enjoy 🙂
*The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.
The Wind Forecast GIF – Looking at the ECMWF wind forecast, wind speeds over the next week will be gusty during the afternoon and early evening hours. That’s when you can expect SW winds at 10-25+ MPH over the high country and wind-prone areas of the Eastern Sierra.
Yep, the wind forecast is about the same all Summer Long. The GIF below shows peak wind gusts over a 6-hour time frame.
Jet Stream – This is the ECMWF ENS Run of the Jet Stream at 200 hPa.
Precipitable Water 144-Hour GIF
Precipitable Water Anomaly 144-Hour GIF Days 16 –
45 ECMWF ENS Run – According to the long-range ECM run below, July is set to be warm but not excessively hot. Precipitation, as expected, is looking on the drier side. That could change, so don’t give up hope on a good monsoon run at some point during the month.
This is the long-range ultra fantasy model run. These runs are good for looking at upcoming trends in the overall weather pattern.
Summer 2024 & Longer Range Outlooks: Expect above-average temperatures with a below-average monsoon season for the Summer Weather Season. I am not 100% convinced we will be as dry as models have shown during the spring.
Now that it’s June, I’d like to start looking at the ECMWF Seasonal Precipitation Model runs out six months. Below, you will find the 500mb Height anomaly for each month into November. Those will be followed the the precipitation anomaly images for each of those months.
Last Update from DWP Precipitation for Mammoth Pass & the Eastern Sierra
El Nino - La Nina - Neutral Watch
* Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather is updated several times a week by local Steve Taylor. The goal is to provide detailed weather forecasts presented in an easy-to-read format. This isn’t a Hype, one-and-done model-run website. It’s just the basic facts from how I see it after 40 years of being involved in the local weather and recreation. And yes, I use Weather Bell for my forecasting data.
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Author – Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman – Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill.
Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with Video & Photo Blog reports. (No YouTube back then). Facebook got added to the fold back in 2008 and then the Facebook Group in 2016.
Reports, videos, and photos from the website have been featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth and Bishop, along with KTLA, AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News.
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