Friday, July 5th, 2024 @ 6 PM: Good evening, and thanks for stopping by our Mammoth Weather Section. You will find mostly blue skies over Mammoth Mountain with just a few buildups from the heat in the area.
Currently, the temperature at the top of Mammoth Mountain is 64 degrees, with a south wind at 21 MPH, gusting to 30 MPH. The temperature at the Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge is 74, with a SW wind at 5 to 15 MPH. In Mammoth Lakes, the temperature reached 88 today, with 104 in Bishop; expect 2-3 degrees of additional warming this weekend.
Temperatures are expected to drop several degrees by next Wednesday. However, any big relief from these warm days will likely not come until mid-month. This is one strong ridge bringing record-breaking temperatures to many areas.
For those with short memories, during the summer of 2021, we had four massive ridges with heat domes like this. As of today, I don’t see any more heat waves this intense anytime soon. Let hope and pray models keep the trend that way.
Here is what you can expect in the High Country into next Tuesday: Skies will be mostly clear with just a few build-ups through Sunday, and there are zero chances of thunderstorms. Per the ECM ENS (shown down the page), there is a slight chance of thunderstorms kicking off Monday into next Wednesday.
Midday temperatures at the 8900-foot level (Main Lodge / Lake Mary) will be in the low 80s, and overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to 60s.
Winds on Mammoth Mountain and over the higher elevations will be SW at 5-15 MPH, with gusts up to 25-30 MPH during the afternoon. Expect stronger gusts over Sierra ridges and at the top of Mammoth Mountain.
Midday temperatures in Mammoth Lakes will be in the upper 80s to the low 90s. Overnight lows will also warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s. The wind will be out of the SW at 5-10 MPH, with gusts to 15-25 MPH.
Midday temperatures from Crowley Lake to Toms Place will be in the low to mid-90s, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
For Bishop to Mill Pond, afternoon temperatures are expected to be very hot at 104-107. Late tonight’s overnight low will be in the mid-to-upper 60s at sunrise. Expect afternoon winds of 5-10 MPH, with gusts up to 15 MPH possible.
Snowman
##Fire Restrictions in Place Now! No Campfires allowed outside of hosted campgrounds even if you have a fire permit. Those spring issued fire permits are now void for the Summer and into Fall.
##Excessive Heat Watch for the Eastern Sierra ##Excessive Heat Warning for Bishop and the Owens Valley and down to Palmdale.
MSLP GIF out 144 hours. Until next Monday, it will be clear and dry, with well above-average temperatures throughout the Eastern Sierra.
(MSLP) is the atmospheric pressure at the mean sea level. It is usually shown on radio, television, newspapers, or Internet weather reports.
Mammoth / Eastern Sierra Weather Story: With July 4th behind us these are the dog days of summer with the greatest potential for high temperatures. If you add in a 600dm high-pressure ridge like the one that is building in now well it’s going to get hot. Even Mammoth Lakes could see a high of 90 over the weekend.
The bottom line is a very strong ridge of high pressure will be slowly making its way through the area over the next 7 to 10 days. This is one strong ridge and you need to be prepared for some possibly record-breaking temperatures starting into at least early next week.
How warm will temperatures get in the area? Mammoth Lakes will have mid-day temperatures in the upper 80s to possibly low 90s with Bishop in the 104-108 temperature range into Sunday / Monday.
If you plan on driving up through the Owens Valley over the next 7-10 days bring extra water, food, and shade. Please consider traveling during the mornings and nighttime hours and avoid the afternoon and evenings.
When will there be a break in the heat wave? If you want to trust the longer range models the ECM 500 mb run (second image down) shows a break in the Summer the very hot weather by around the 14/15th of the month.
After that the 4 corners high will set up and temps will be just a bit above average and will feel about perfect. No signs of any thunder or decent storms yet, over the next week to ten days.
I would expect to see some build-ups with this amount of heat in the area, but there is no, moisture tap as this mass ridge is the area cut off from the Summer Monsoon.
The next update to the Mammoth Weather page will be Sunday afternoon/evening.
Snowman out…
15-Day ECM 500mb Anomaly GIF: Below is the entire 15-day run of the ECMWF ensemble model. I use this model to tell the Mammoth Weather Story you just read above. Compared to the other models, this solution has been effective more often than not over the years. 
Temperature Anomaly GIF: Temperatures will remain above average to well above average for the foreseeable future. The best time to get out and play will be early morning for hiking and biking. Afternoons look good for being out on the water or on the shoreline.
*The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.
The Wind Forecast GIF – Looking at the ECMWF wind forecast, wind speeds over the next week will be gusty during the afternoon and early evening hours. That’s when you can expect SW winds at 10-25+ MPH over the high country and wind-prone areas of the Eastern Sierra.
Yep, the wind forecast is about the same all Summer Long. The GIF shows peak wind gusts over a 6-hour time frame.
QPF Forecast GIF
32 Day – Snowfall Forecast
Jet Stream – This is the ECMWF ENS Run of the Jet Stream at 200 hPa.
Precipitable Water 144-Hour GIF
Precipitable Water Anomaly GIF
45 ECMWF ENS Run – According to the long-range ECM run below, July is set to start HOT now and then be warm but not excessively hot the second half of the month. Precipitation, as expected, is looking on the drier side. That could change, so don’t give up hope on a good monsoon run at some point during the month.
This is the long-range ultra fantasy model run. These runs are good for looking at upcoming trends in the overall weather pattern.
Updated 6-5-2024 – Summer 2024 & Longer Range Outlooks: Expect above-average temperatures with a below-average monsoon season for the Summer Weather season. The upcoming Fall season is also looking to at least start warm when the Boreal Fall begins on September 1st.
Beyond that time frame models are still not picking up on what later Fall and early Winter might bring. So low confidence on what you see here beyond August.
Let’s see how the developing La Nina comes long before we freak out on any long range charts. I do think Fall will be drier and warmer then average, but that has been more of the norm now for what seems like more then a decade.
La Nina Years Snowfall Totals for Mammoth Mountain
Weak La Nina
1971-72 Snowfall Total = 268 with 139 in December
1984-85 Snowfall Total = 236
2000-01 Snowfall Total = 393 with 124 in February
2005-06 Snowfall Total = 578 with 4 100+ inch snowfall months
2008-09 Snowfall Total = 470 with 2 100+ inch snowfall months
2016-17 Snowfall Total = 617 with 245 January 163 February
2017-18 Snowfall Total = 262 with 142 in March
Moderate La Nina
1970-71 Snowfall Total = 255
1995-96 Snowfall Total = 321
2011-12 Snowfall Total = 263
2020-21 Snowfall Total = 244.5
2021-22 Snowfall Total = 260
Strong La Nina
1973-74 Snowfall Total = 306
1975-76 Snowfall Total = 197
1988-89 Snowfall Total = 251
1998-99 Snowfall Total = 323
1999-00 Snowfall Total = 382
2007-08 Snowfall Total = 333
2010-11 Snowfall Total = 668
2022-2023 Snowfall Total = 717
Last Update from DWP Precipitation for Mammoth Pass & the Eastern Sierra
El Nino - La Nina - Neutral Watch
* Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather is updated several times a week by local Steve Taylor. The goal is to provide detailed weather forecasts presented in an easy-to-read format. This isn’t a Hype, one-and-done model-run website. It’s just the basic facts from how I see it after 40 years of being involved in the local weather and recreation. And yes, I use Weather Bell for my forecasting data.
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Author – Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman – Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill.
Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with Video & Photo Blog reports. (No YouTube back then). Facebook got added to the fold back in 2008 and then the Facebook Group in 2016.
Reports, videos, and photos from the website have been featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth and Bishop, along with KTLA, AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News.
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