Sunday, July 7th, 2024 @ 5 PM: Good evening, and thanks for stopping by our Mammoth Weather Section. You will find a light haze with clear skies in the area. The haze is from dissipated smoke from the dozen or so fires burning on the California West Side. Air Quality remains fine, so no worries on that end.
Currently, the temperature at the top of Mammoth Mountain is 68 degrees, with a south wind at 18 MPH, gusting to 33 MPH. The temperature at the Main Lodge is 77, with a SW wind at 4 to 20 MPH. In Mammoth Lakes, the temperature is 86, with a HOT 108 in Bishop.
Temperatures are expected to drop 1-3 degrees by next Wednesday. However, any decent relief from these warm days will likely not come until next weekend. This is one strong ridge bringing record-breaking temperatures to many areas in California.
For those with short memories, during the Summer of 2021, we had four massive ridges with heat domes like this. As of today, I don’t see any more heat waves this intense anytime soon. Let’s hope and pray models keep trending that way.
#Excessive Heat Watch for the Eastern Sierra into Thursday
#Excessive Heat Warning for Bishop and the Owens Valley and down to Palmdale through Friday.
Here is what you can expect in the High Country into next Friday: Skies will be mostly clear with no thunderstorms in the forecast. Midday temperatures at the 8900-foot level (Main Lodge / Lake Mary) will be in the low 80s, and overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Winds on Mammoth Mountain and over the higher elevations will be SW at 5-15 MPH, with gusts up to 20-30 MPH during the afternoon. Expect stronger gusts over Sierra ridges and at the top of Mammoth Mountain.
Midday temperatures in Mammoth Lakes will be in the upper 80s, dropping into the mid-80s by Thursday. Overnight lows will also warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s. The wind will be out of the SW at 5-10 MPH, with gusts to 15-25 MPH.
Midday temperatures from Crowley Lake to Toms Place will be in the low to mid-90s, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
For Bishop to Mill Pond, mid-morning into the evening, temperatures are expected to be very hot at 104-108. Overnight lows will come down in the mid-to-upper 60s just before sunrise. Expect afternoon winds of 5-10 MPH, with gusts up to 15 MPH possible.
Snowman
MSLP GIF out 144 hours – Hot and Dry Weather continues with isolated chances for a T Storms this week on the ECMWF ENS below.
(MSLP) is the atmospheric pressure at the mean sea level. It is usually shown on radio, television, newspapers, or Internet weather reports.
Mammoth Mountain / Eastern Sierra Weather Story
With July 4th behind us, we are now into the Dog Days of Summer, with the greatest potential for high temperatures occurring at this time. If you add in a 600dm high-pressure ridge, like the one that is over us now, you can expect some hot weather.
The bottom line is that a very strong ridge of high pressure will slowly move through the area over the next 7 days.
After that, the Four Corners High looks to set up with continued warm temperatures in the area. The really good news is that the extreme heat of early July should be gone by then. By day 10, the area should be warm but just above seasonal averages.
There are still no signs of any major monsoonal flow, but there could be a 10-20% chance of some buildups and isolated storms by next weekend.
Snowman out…
15-Day ECM 500mb Anomaly GIF: Below is the entire 15-day run of the ECMWF ensemble model. I use this model to tell the Mammoth Weather Story you just read above. Compared to the other models, this solution has been effective more often than not over the years.
Temperature Anomaly GIF: Temperatures will remain above average to well above average for the foreseeable future. The best time to get out and play will be early morning for hiking and biking. Afternoons look good for being out on the water or on the shoreline.
*The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.
The Wind Forecast GIF – Looking at the ECMWF wind forecast, wind speeds over the next week will be gusty during the afternoon and early evening hours. That’s when you can expect SW winds at 10-25+ MPH over the high country and wind-prone areas of the Eastern Sierra.
Yep, the wind forecast is about the same all Summer Long. The GIF shows peak wind gusts over a 6-hour time frame.
QPF Forecast GIF
32 Day – Snowfall Forecast 
Jet Stream – This is the ECMWF ENS Run of the Jet Stream at 200 hPa. 
Precipitable Water 144-Hour GIF
Precipitable Water Anomaly GIF
45 ECMWF ENS Run – According to the long-range ECM run below, July is set to start HOT now and then be warm but not excessively hot the second half of the month. Precipitation, as expected, is looking on the drier side. That could change, so don’t give up hope on a good monsoon run at some point during the month.
This is the long-range ultra fantasy model run. These runs are good for looking at upcoming trends in the overall weather pattern.
Updated 6-5-2024 – Summer 2024 & Longer Range Outlooks: Expect above-average temperatures with a below-average monsoon season for the Summer Weather season. The upcoming Fall season is also looking to at least start warm when the Boreal Fall begins on September 1st.
Beyond that time frame models are still not picking up on what later Fall and early Winter might bring. So low confidence on what you see here beyond August.
Let’s see how the developing La Nina comes long before we freak out on any long range charts. I do think Fall will be drier and warmer then average, but that has been more of the norm now for what seems like more then a decade.
La Nina Years Snowfall Totals for Mammoth Mountain
Weak La Nina
1971-72 Snowfall Total = 268 with 139 in December
1984-85 Snowfall Total = 236
2000-01 Snowfall Total = 393 with 124 in February
2005-06 Snowfall Total = 578 with 4 100+ inch snowfall months
2008-09 Snowfall Total = 470 with 2 100+ inch snowfall months
2016-17 Snowfall Total = 617 with 245 January 163 February
2017-18 Snowfall Total = 262 with 142 in March
Moderate La Nina
1970-71 Snowfall Total = 255
1995-96 Snowfall Total = 321
2011-12 Snowfall Total = 263
2020-21 Snowfall Total = 244.5
2021-22 Snowfall Total = 260
Strong La Nina
1973-74 Snowfall Total = 306
1975-76 Snowfall Total = 197
1988-89 Snowfall Total = 251
1998-99 Snowfall Total = 323
1999-00 Snowfall Total = 382
2007-08 Snowfall Total = 333
2010-11 Snowfall Total = 668
2022-2023 Snowfall Total = 717
Last Update from DWP Precipitation for Mammoth Pass & the Eastern Sierra
El Nino - La Nina - Neutral Watch
* Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather is updated several times a week by local Steve Taylor. The goal is to provide detailed weather forecasts presented in an easy-to-read format. This isn’t a Hype, one-and-done model-run website. It’s just the basic facts from how I see it after 40 years of being involved in the local weather and recreation. And yes, I use Weather Bell for my forecasting data.
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Author – Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman – Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill.
Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with Video & Photo Blog reports. (No YouTube back then). Facebook got added to the fold back in 2008 and then the Facebook Group in 2016.
Reports, videos, and photos from the website have been featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth and Bishop, along with KTLA, AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News.
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