8-27-2024 @ 7:45 AM – Mammoth Mountain and the Eastern Sierra currently have mostly clear skies as the area is now under higher heights as a broad ridge of high pressure is in the area. Temperatures started to come up quickly on Monday and will be up several more degrees today in the high country. Through Friday, expect dry conditions with an afternoon breeze over the higher elevations and down in the Bishop and Millpond areas.
For the big Labor Day Weekend Holiday, there is a cut-off low that will be affecting the weather. Models indicated the area will be cooling off a bit, and there will be a chance of some light showers on Saturday and possibly Sunday. Since this is a cut-off low, the exact forecast for the weekend remains in doubt at this time. Any showers that do occur will be light as there will be limited moisture to work with.
Here is what you can expect in the High Country into next Friday: Midday temperatures at the 8900-foot level (Main Lodge / Lake Mary) will be in the low 60s today, rising into the upper 60s to lower 70s on Monday/Tuesday.
Overnight lows will be in the mid-40s tonight, then in the upper 40s to lower 50s during the mid-week. Winds on Mammoth Mountain and in the high country will be N to NE today and then SW at 5-10 MPH, with gusts up to 15-25+ MPH at times later Tuesday onward.
In Mammoth Lakes, midday temperatures will be in the mid-60s today, with mid to upper 70s the rest of the upcoming week. Overnight lows will be in the lower 50s.
Midday temperatures from Crowley Lake to Toms Place will be in the upper 60s today and then the low 80s the rest of the week. Overnight lows are expected in the mid to upper 40s.
For the Bishop to Millpond areas, expect mid-day temperatures to be in the mid-80s today and then low to mid-90s into next Friday, with overnight lows into the upper 50s.
MSLP GIF out 144 hours
Mammoth Mountain / Eastern Sierra Weather Story
Here is today’s Mammoth Weather Story: There has not been much change since the Sunday post. This week, a fast-developing ridge will warm the area with just about perfect temperatures to end the Borreal Summer. For Weather people, the new Fall Season begins on September 1st, with the equinox on the 21st.
As mentioned above, there looks to be a cut-off low in play for next weekend into Labor Day. That low could kick off a few showers and a very slight dusting of snow above 10,000 feet. We will have a better handle on the COL later this week. Both models, ECM / GEFS, are showing this setup again this morning.
As we move into September, you can expect average to just above-average temperatures throughout the month. Currently, September and October, at least through mid-month, are looking warmer and dry. I do expect at some point over that time frame a weak low will bring some cooler weather and showers as is normally the case.
Looking way out towards the next snowfall season, it’s hard to predict what might come our way. If a weak La Nina does form, as is the forecast now, there is a good chance we get a season on the drier side. However, there have been several big, weak La Nina winters over the last 25 years, so don’t bank on a drier season just yet. It could be the perfect winter, with moderate amounts of snow mixed in with some longer dry periods.
Snowman
15-Day ECM 500mb Anomaly GIF: Below is the entire 15-day run of the ECMWF ensemble model. I use this model to tell the Mammoth Weather Story you just read above. Compared to the other models, this solution has been effective more often than not over the years.
Temperature Anomaly GIF: The transition from deep blue to red means it’s time for warming temperatures, but nothing Hot is expected.
*Temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.
The Wind Forecast GIF – Expect light winds 5-10 MPH with gusts in the 15-30 MPH range over the higher elevations at times.
The QPF Forecast – That cut-off low shows some QPF output early next weekend.
Jet Stream – This is the ECMWF ENS Run of the Jet Stream
Precipitable Water Forecast
Precipitable Water Anomaly Forecast
45 ECMWF ENS Run – Over the next 45 days, the weather is looking about what I would expect for September in the Eastern Sierra. Dry with a bit above average temperatures for the month. Let’s hope for a dusting of snow again at some point in time.
This is the long-range ultra fantasy model run. These runs are good for looking at upcoming trends in the overall weather pattern.
45-Day Fantasy Snowfall Outlook– During my 40-year ride watching the weather on Mammoth Mountain, many years, the first light dusting of snow comes right around the 21st of September, give or take a few days.
As I have often said, we look at these long-range fantasy models to see how the weather is trending; they are not forecasts by any means.
Updated 8-8-2024 – ECMWF Seasonal – This model is updated monthly, and I get access to the images around the 6th of each month.
What we are seeing now is above-normal temperatures right into November. The good news is there is nothing major as far as heat is concerned, just endless warm days. It does look like a break in the warmth around the last day of Summer, 9/21, before more warm Indian Summer days kick in for October.
This outlook update shows an average to just above-average precipitation outlook for the early winter season months of November, December, and January 2025.
As of now, it appears there will be a weak La Nina for next winter. Just to note, some of our biggest winters came during weaker La Ninas, so don’t bank on what the mainstream weather forecasters are spinning with all their doom and gloom coming up.
El Nino - La Nina - Neutral Watch
La Nina Years Snowfall Totals for Mammoth Mountain
Weak La Nina
1971-72 Snowfall Total = 268 with 139 in December
1984-85 Snowfall Total = 236
2000-01 Snowfall Total = 393 with 124 in February
2005-06 Snowfall Total = 578 with 4 100+ inch snowfall months
2008-09 Snowfall Total = 470 with 2 100+ inch snowfall months
2016-17 Snowfall Total = 617 with 245 January 163 February
2017-18 Snowfall Total = 262 with 142 in March
Moderate La Nina
1970-71 Snowfall Total = 255
1995-96 Snowfall Total = 321
2011-12 Snowfall Total = 263
2020-21 Snowfall Total = 244.5
2021-22 Snowfall Total = 260
Strong La Nina
1973-74 Snowfall Total = 306
1975-76 Snowfall Total = 197
1988-89 Snowfall Total = 251
1998-99 Snowfall Total = 323
1999-00 Snowfall Total = 382
2007-08 Snowfall Total = 333
2010-11 Snowfall Total = 668
2022-2023 Snowfall Total = 717 – Largest Winter Recorded over the last 100 years
Last Update from DWP Precipitation for Mammoth Pass & the Eastern Sierra
* Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather is updated several times a week by local Steve Taylor. The goal is to provide detailed weather forecasts presented in an easy-to-read format. This isn’t a Hype, one-and-done model-run website. It’s just the basic facts from how I see it after 40 years of being involved in the local weather and recreation. And yes, I use Weather Bell for my forecasting data.
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Author – Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman – Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill.
Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with Video & Photo Blog reports. (No YouTube back then). Facebook got added to the fold back in 2008 and then the Facebook Group in 2016.
Reports, videos, and photos from the website have been featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth and Bishop, along with KTLA, AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News.
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