Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast from the Snowman
Steve Taylor the Snowman
October 8, 2024
8:46 am
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Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast & Long Range Outlook
Thursday, September 5th, 2024 @ 5:20 PM – Looking at the current windowcast, skies are just a bit of haze from Mammoth Mountain into Mammoth Lakes and down to Bishop.
We continue to get hazy from dissipated smoke from the Coffee Pot fire. Once in a rare while, the air quality goes terrible for a few hours, and then the mess all blows out. If you monitor AQI levels, I have not seen them surpass the upper 50s in a few days.
Conditions up top this evening show a temperature of 60 degrees with an S wind at 23 to 31 MPH. The temperature at the Main Lodge is 70 degrees with a SW wind at 4 MPH, gusting to 16 MPH.
The temperature at Little Eagle Lodge in the upper part of Mammoth Lakes is 76 degrees. Down in the lower elevations, Bishop’s noon temperature is 96 degrees.
…Mammoth Mountain and Southern Eastern Sierra Weather Synopsis into next Monday…
Into Saturday, there will be perfect end-of-summer warmth in the area, with a few builds. With the build-ups, expect a 10% chance of a weak thunderstorm over the higher terrain from Bishop Creek Canyon up to Mammoth Mountain and a bit north. As of this post, the QPF during this time frame is pretty light.
What about snowflakes? Snow Levels look to remain above the 12,000-13,000 foot mark through Saturday; the only dusting showing on the models is down around Mt Whitney.
Here are the details of what you can expect in the High Country into Monday:
Midday temperatures at the 8900-foot level (Main Lodge / Lake Mary) will be in the low to mid-70s on Friday, with upper 60s on Saturday into Monday. Overnight lows will be in the mid-50s.
Winds on Mammoth Mountain will be SW at 10-20 MPH, with gusts to 25-35 MPH at times. Over the higher terrain, look for increased winds on Saturday with high terrain gusts in the 35-50 MPH range.
In Mammoth Lakes, midday temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s, with overnight lows in the low to mid-50s. From Crowley Lake to Toms Place, midday temperatures will be in the low 80s. Overnight lows are expected in the upper 40s to lower 50s
For the Bishop to Millpond areas, expect mid-day temperatures in the mid-90s and overnight lows into the mid-50s.
Mammoth Mountain Extended Fantasy Weather Discussion
9-5-2024 @ 5 PM – More Warm days with isolated build-ups and showers are possible into Saturday. The above-average temperatures look to hang around through at least the 10th of the month, and then the area will cool off with 60s for Mammoth Lakes and mid to upper 80s for Bishop by the 11th / 12th of the month.
The next low presure system is now advertised as a very early Fall inside the slider. That track would lower the temperatures down at least 10 degrees and bring in N to NW winds to the region. It’s doubtful the slider will have moisture; however, they could be some partly cloudy skies.
As we move into the heart of September, this month still looks above average temperature-wise, with limited precipitation. The ECM is still showing a dusting in the outlook for late September.
Please note that we are moving into meteorological fall with the start of the new month. Models can get a bit weird over the next 6-8 weeks as they are entering the transition season from Summer to the next Snowfall season, which will hopefully start in late October or early November.
Steve Taylor – the Mammoth Snowman – Next Update on Sunday by 12 Noon
ECM & GEFS Ensemble Models 500
15-Day ECM 500mb Anomaly GIF: Below is the entire 15-day run of the ECMWF ensemble model. I use this model to tell the Mammoth Weather Story you just read above. Compared to the other models, this solution has been effective more often than others over the years.
16-Day GEFS Ensemble 500mb Anomaly GIF: Below is the second most trusted ensemble model that we use that goes out to day 16. Model relaibily beyond day 7 can be very suspect expecialy during the transition seasons of Spring and Fall.
ECMWF Ensemble Jet Stream Gif
This is the Eastern Pacifc View of the ECMWF ENSEMBLE Run of the Jet Stream.
Temperature Forecast
Temperature Anomaly GIF: Over the next seven days, above-average temperatures will likely be from Mammoth Mountain down into the Bishop area. However, as it is September, expect it to be a bit hot in Bishop during the afternoon and evening hours.
*Temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.
The Wind Forecast
The forecast out to next Wednesday has winds in the 15-20 MPH range during the PM hours expect on Saturday when there will be chances for gusts in the 35-45 MPH range for elevations above the 9000 foot level.
QPF Forecast
While the NWS has zero chance for build-ups and isolated showers, the ECMWF ENS still suggests a slight chance into Saturday afternoon.
Snowfall Forecast
Just a tiny dusting of snow is showing up around the Mt. Whitney area; all other locations and elevations are too warm for snow from this weak cut-off low to move through.
Precipital Water Anomaly
There is enough moisture around for some isolated showers in the next few days. When you see the green on the map below, there is a chance for build-ups and isolated precipitation.
45-Day Long Range Fantasy Outlook
This is the long-range ultra fantasy 45-day model run. These longer-range ensembles are good for examining long-range trends in the overall weather pattern. They should never be used or considered a forecast.
Over the next 45 days, the weather is looking about what I would expect for September into mid October in the Eastern Sierra: dry with above-average temperatures. Let’s hope for a dusting of snow again around the third week of September and again early to mid October.
45-Day Fantasy Snowfall Outlook
The the ECMWF EXT ENS still has a dusting for later in September with more snow at some point in October. These would just be a dusting and would melt off on contact or possibly hang around for a couple hours.
Once the mid October hits any snow that does fall should hang around on north facing slopes. In the past there have been several October openers when the energy from a Typhone gets caught up on the Jet Stream and heads in the Sierra. Those system never show up in the long range so let’s hope we start to see something like that set up after mid October. Just a dream….
First Look at Snowfall Season 2024-25
9-5-2024 – When looking ahead to the next snowfall season, predicting what might happen is difficult at this time of year. If a weak La Nina does form (66%), there is a good chance we will have a drier-than-average snowfall season.
However, several very big winters have come from weak La Ninas over the last 25 years. (See the La Nina Winter chart down the page.) Everyone must also remember that many other factors are at play than just warm or cooler water along the Pacific equator.
For now, Ted (Powder Forecast) and I are not forecasting what the winter might be like. We will better understand how this may play out in late October / early November. As we have all seen in the past, patterns can quickly flip and change in late December and January.
La Nina seasons are like El Nino and can bring drought, moderate winters, or large ones. Many factors are at play, and the situation can change as the winter season starts to ramp up in mid-to-late December.
Let’s keep the positive vibes that Mammoth Mountain gets a perfect winter, with moderate amounts of powder snow mixed in with some dry periods and endless wind-buff days.
Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman
PS The new runs of the ECMWF Seasonal come out for forecasters on the 5th of each month.
La Nina Years Snowfall Totals for Mammoth Mountain
Weak La Nina
1971-72 Snowfall Total = 268 with 139 in December
1984-85 Snowfall Total = 236
2000-01 Snowfall Total = 393 with 124 in February
2005-06 Snowfall Total = 578 with 4 100+ inch snowfall months
2008-09 Snowfall Total = 470 with 2 100+ inch snowfall months
2016-17 Snowfall Total = 617 with 245 January 163 February
2017-18 Snowfall Total = 262 with 142 in March
Moderate La Nina
1970-71 Snowfall Total = 255
1995-96 Snowfall Total = 321
2011-12 Snowfall Total = 263
2020-21 Snowfall Total = 244.5
2021-22 Snowfall Total = 260
Strong La Nina
1973-74 Snowfall Total = 306
1975-76 Snowfall Total = 197
1988-89 Snowfall Total = 251
1998-99 Snowfall Total = 323
1999-00 Snowfall Total = 382
2007-08 Snowfall Total = 333
2010-11 Snowfall Total = 668
2022-2023 Snowfall Total = 717 – Largest Winter Recorded over the last 100 years
El Nino - La Nina - Neutral Watch
Last Update from DWP Precipitation for Mammoth Pass & the Eastern Sierra
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*Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather is updated Sunday, Tuesday & Thursday by local Steve Taylor, the Mammoth Snowman. The goal is to provide detailed weather forecasts presented in an easy-to-read format. This isn’t a Hype, one-and-done model-run website. It’s just the basic facts from how I see it after 40 years of being involved in local weather and recreation. And yes, I use Weather Bell for my forecasting data.
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Author – Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman – Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill.
Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums, and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with Video and photo Blog reports. (There was No YouTube back then.) Facebook was added to the fold in 2008, and the Facebook Group was added in 2016.
Reports, videos, and photos from the website have been featured on local TV Stations here in Mammoth and Bishop, as well as KTLA, AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News.
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