Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast from the Snowman
Steve Taylor the Snowman
October 8, 2024
8:46 am
Read More »
Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast
Including Mammoth Lakes & Bishop, California
Thursday, September 12th, at 6 AM – Mammoth Mountain and the Southern Eastern Sierra are under clear skies this morning. It feels like early fall up in the high country, with the lower elevations from Crowley down to Bishop starting to cool off a bit in the last couple of days as well.
Checking area weather stations up top this morning, the temperature is 34 degrees with an S wind at 31 MPH, gusting to 41 MPH at times. Down at the Main Lodge / 8900 Foot level, the temperature is 43 degrees with a WSW wind at 3 MPH, gusting to 17 MPH at times.
The temperature in Mammoth Lakes is 49 degrees. The Mammoth Airport is 39 degrees, with 81 degrees in Crowley Lake and 39 degrees in Bishop. The chilly spot for the morning is the June Mountain Parking area, at 32 degrees.
Weather Synopsis through Monday: The Fall Seasons’ first “inside slider” has entered the Great Basin over the last 24 hours.
Today, Friday, and Saturday, expect cooler days with lighter winds under clear skies. Yahoo, Fall has arrived, and the warmth of Summer is over.
By Sunday, the next upstream system will start to affect the area, with increasing high clouds, moderate winds over the high country, and breezy conditions for the lower elevations.
For Monday, light rain and snow showers are looking increasingly likely by daybreak, with the snow level above the 8000 – 9000 elevation level. Models have enough snowfall that Mammoth Mountain (from Main Lodge up) could see that second dusting of snow.
QPF amounts for the Monday cold front are very low, in the .10 to .20 range, with some models showing only a trace.
First light freezes for the High Country above 7000 feet are expected. Next week, overnight lows look to be below the freezing mark from at least Tuesday morning into the following Saturday morning.
This would include all of the Backcountry, Mammoth Mountain, and the towns of Mammoth Lakes, Crowley, and Sunny Slopes by Toms Place.
Weather Forecast for Your Adventure For Thursday into Saturday at the 8900-foot level (Main Lodge/Mammoth Lakes Basin), skies will be clear, with midday temperatures in the low to mid-60s and overnight lows in the 40s.
Winds on Mammoth Mountain and over the higher elevations will be SW at 5-10 MPH, with gusts up to 20+ MPH during the afternoons.
Midday temperatures in Mammoth Lakes will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday into Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the lower 40s. Winds will be SW at 5-10 MPH, with gusts to 15 MPH.
Midday temperatures from Crowley Lake to Toms Place will be in the low to mid-70s, with overnight lows dropping into the mid-30s to lower 40s. Winds will be SW at 5-10 with gusts to 15 MPH.
For Bishop to Mill Pond, mid-day highs will be in the low to mid-80s Thursday into Saturday. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid-40s, and valley winds will be SW at 5-15 mph.
Snowman
(Live Feed) Bakersfield Intelicast Rader Image[/caption
Mammoth Mountain Weather Outlook & Discussion
I love it when the area exits Summer warmth and slips into the extended fall-type weather. This September, we are going to get a decent taste of Fall with a weather system coming in from just off the coast on Monday.
This low will pick up some light moisture and should be strong enough to produce snow and rain showers, as mentioned above.
I would not expect much more than a dusting in areas where it snows, as the ground is very dry and warm. However, there could be enough moisture to overcome that at some point on Monday.
The other thing to note about this next low-pressure system is that it will be in no hurry to vacate the area. The low looks to get reinvigorated later in the week, with a second front forming and coming through the area next Wednesday / Thursday, bringing more light rain and snow showers for the higher elevations.
Confidence in the forecast for the Monday system and the next possible dusting of snow is growing. Let’s hope the low stays on its current track.
If you’re planning a hike into the backcountry next week, you need to be ready for light snowfall. Some locations that experience a heavy storm could see several inches of snow accumulate, so be prepared.
In the longer-range fantasy outlook period for the last week of September, the EPS model has higher heights again for what would be considered Indian Summer Weather. That is assuming next week’s system brings a dusting of snow to the high country.
The GEFS model is a bit cooler with lower overall heights in the area in the long-range, so the models are a bit at odds. If the area does warm up again, as I expect it to, don’t expect it to be hot like the Summer months.
Looking way out into the Fantasy Forecast for October’s weather trends, the ensemble models still show warm, dry days. The one thing that could change is that a typhoon would merge with the westerlies and send some moisture our way.
That type of weather pattern is more likely for Mammoth from around mid-October into early November. It’s a short window, but sometimes we get blessed and go from dirt to snow base fast from that type of Senecio.
Steve Taylor – the Mammoth Snowman
The Next Weather Page Update will be posted by 5 PM or earlier on Saturday.
Mammoth Weather Forecast Data
ECM & GEFS Ensemble Models 500
15-Day ECM 500mb Anomaly GIF: Below is the entire 15-day run of the ECMWF ensemble model. I use this model to tell the Mammoth Weather Story you just read above. Compared to the other models, this solution has been effective more often than others over the years.
16-Day GEFS Ensemble 500mb Anomaly GIF: Below is the second most trusted ensemble model that we use that goes out to day 16. Model relaibily beyond day 7 can be very suspect expecialy during the transition seasons of Spring and Fall.
ECMWF Ensemble Jet Stream Gif
This is the Eastern Pacific View of the ECMWF ENSEMBLE Run of the Jet Stream.
Temperature Forecast
Temperature Anomaly GIF: Over the next week, expect a slow cool down, as shown below, with the blues moving over California. The cooler weather looks to be in the area for the next 10-14 days before there is a bit of a warm-up again. You can kiss the heat of Summer goodbye this week in the Southern Eastern Sierra.
*Temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.
The Wind Forecast
By Thursday winds over Mammoth Mountain and the higher elevations will be SW at 5-10 MPH, with gusts up to 25-35 MPH during the afternoons. Winds will be increasing later on Sunday into Monday as a cold front makes it’s way through the area.
QPF Forecast
Snowfall Forecast
Precipitable Water Anomaly
As the inside slider drops into the great basin, all the moisture in the area gets suppressed to our south. The second low brings with it a slight tap of moisture. Hopefully, it’s enough to get the ground white again for at least a few hours.
45-Day Long Range Fantasy Outlook
This is the long-range ultra fantasy 45-day model run. These longer-range ensembles are good for examining long-range trends in the overall weather pattern. They should never be used or considered a forecast.
45-Day Fantasy Snowfall Outlook
First Look at Snowfall Season 2024-25
9-5-2024 – When looking ahead to the next snowfall season, predicting what might happen is difficult at this time of year. If a weak La Nina does form (66%), there is a good chance we will have a drier-than-average snowfall season.
However, several very big winters have come from weak La Ninas over the last 25 years. (See the La Nina Winter chart down the page.) Everyone must also remember that many other factors are at play than just warm or cooler water along the Pacific equator.
For now, Ted (Powder Forecast) and I are not forecasting what the winter might be like. We will better understand how this may play out in late October / early November. As we have all seen in the past, patterns can quickly flip and change in late December and January.
La Nina seasons are like El Nino and can bring drought, moderate winters, or large ones. Many factors are at play, and the situation can change as the winter season starts to ramp up in mid-to-late December.
Let’s keep the positive vibes that Mammoth Mountain gets a perfect winter, with moderate amounts of powder snow mixed in with some dry periods and endless wind-buff days.
Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman
PS The new runs of the ECMWF Seasonal come out for forecasters on the 5th of each month.
La Nina Years Snowfall Totals for Mammoth Mountain
Weak La Nina
1971-72 Snowfall Total = 268 with 139 in December
1984-85 Snowfall Total = 236
2000-01 Snowfall Total = 393 with 124 in February
2005-06 Snowfall Total = 578 with 4 100+ inch snowfall months
2008-09 Snowfall Total = 470 with 2 100+ inch snowfall months
2016-17 Snowfall Total = 617 with 245 January 163 February
2017-18 Snowfall Total = 262 with 142 in March
Moderate La Nina
1970-71 Snowfall Total = 255
1995-96 Snowfall Total = 321
2011-12 Snowfall Total = 263
2020-21 Snowfall Total = 244.5
2021-22 Snowfall Total = 260
Strong La Nina
1973-74 Snowfall Total = 306
1975-76 Snowfall Total = 197
1988-89 Snowfall Total = 251
1998-99 Snowfall Total = 323
1999-00 Snowfall Total = 382
2007-08 Snowfall Total = 333
2010-11 Snowfall Total = 668
2022-2023 Snowfall Total = 717 – Largest Winter Recorded over the last 100 years
El Nino - La Nina - Neutral Watch
Last Update from DWP Precipitation for Mammoth Pass & the Eastern Sierra
Most Recent Posts
Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast from the Snowman
Steve Taylor the Snowman
October 6, 2024
8:04 am
Read More »
Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast from the Snowman
Steve Taylor the Snowman
September 30, 2024
7:57 am
Read More »
*Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather is updated Sunday, Tuesday & Thursday by local Steve Taylor, the Mammoth Snowman. The goal is to provide detailed weather forecasts presented in an easy-to-read format. This isn’t a Hype, one-and-done model-run website. It’s just the basic facts from how I see it after 40 years of being involved in local weather and recreation. And yes, I use Weather Bell for my forecasting data.
——————-
Author – Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman – Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill.
Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums, and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with Video and photo Blog reports. (There was No YouTube back then.) Facebook was added to the fold in 2008, and the Facebook Group was added in 2016.
Reports, videos, and photos from the website have been featured on local TV Stations here in Mammoth and Bishop, as well as KTLA, AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News.
Click Here to Learn More About the People Who Make MammothSnowman.com a Reality
