Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast from the Snowman
Steve Taylor the Snowman
October 8, 2024
8:46 am
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Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast
Including Mammoth Lakes & Bishop, California
Monday, September 30th, 2024 @ 6:30 AM Welcome to the start of October. Expect warm and dry days with lots of ridging and above-average temperatures.
The calm weather looks to last for at least the next two weeks, if not longer. With this perfect early fall weather, it is a great time to get outside for a Fall Adventure.
Currently, Mammoth Mountain and the Southern Eastern Sierra are under mostly clear skies. Checking area weather stations this morning, up Top (11,053 Feet) the temperature is 44 degrees with a W wind at 30 MPH gusting to 33 MPH.
Down at the Main Lodge (8900 Feet), the temperature is 48 degrees, and the wind is WSW at 1 MPH, gusting to 5 MPH at times.
The temperature is 44 degrees down in Mammoth Lakes. The Mammoth Airport is 39 degrees, with 34 degrees in Crowley Lake and 43 degrees down in Bishop.
Mammoth Weather Forecast for Your Adventure
Basic Weather Details into Thursday: For the Main Lodge area, midday temperatures at the 8900-foot level will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The wind forecast for the next few days calls for a west-to-south-west flow. Wind Speed at the 8900-foot level will be 5-10 MPH with gusts in the 15-20 MPH range during the afternoon. Winds gusts up top will sometimes be a bit stronger at 20-30 MPH.
In Mammoth Lakes, midday temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows with light winds will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
For Bishop to Mill Pond, mid-day highs will be in the low to mid-90s, with overnight lows in the low 50s.
Mammoth Mountain Area Forecast Discussion
Welcome to the start of October. As I have been saying for weeks now, this month will start out warm and dry with lots of ridging and above-average temperatures.
This week’s high-pressure system is coming in stronger than expected, so daytime temperatures are now expected to be 10-15 degrees above average for this time of year.
The warm, dry days look to be with us for the next 2-3 weeks, as ridging will rule the weather out west. This should be a perfect time to watch the Fall color show.
The longer-range trend is for cooler weather with a light dusting of snowfall the last week of October. Temperatures could cool enough for the snowmakers to at least test out their systems.
Looking out into the Ultra Fantasy Outlook period, I see that the trends are favorable for the opener on 11/15. After some ridging to start November, the trend on the ECM ENS and the ECM C models had some cold air with more light snowfall.
Disclaimer: Of course, this is NOT a forecast but a look at the ongoing long-range weather trends that ensemble models are showing.
Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman
Mammoth Weather Forecast Data from Weather Bell
ECM & GEFS Ensemble Models 500
10-Day ECM 500mb Anomaly GIF: Below is the entire 15-day run of the ECMWF ensemble model. I use this model to tell the Mammoth Weather Story you just read above. Compared to the other models, this solution has been effective more often than others over the years.
10-Day GEFS Ensemble 500mb Anomaly GIF: Below is the second most trusted ensemble model that we use that goes out to day 16. Model relaibily beyond day 7 can be very suspect expecialy during the transition seasons of Spring and Fall. 0
ECMWF Ensemble Jet Stream Gif
This is the Northern Pacific View of the ECMWF ENSEMBLE Run of the Jet Stream.
Temperature Forecast
Upper-Air Temperature Anomaly GIF: The reds are moving over California, which means above-average temperatures are here again. For now there are no signs of much cooling over the next 10 days.
*Temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.
The Wind Forecast
The wind forecast for the next few days calls for a west-to-south-west flow. Wind Speed at the 8900 foot level will be 5-10 MPH with gusts in the 15-20 MPH range during the afternoon hours. Winds gusts up top will be a bit stronger at 20-30 MPH at times.
QPF Forecast
The following ten days is looking dry, with no rain or snow in sight at this time.
Snowfall Forecast
Most models show the area getting no snowfall over the next ten days, which is pretty typical for early October.
Precipitable Water Anomaly
45-Day Long Range Fantasy Outlook
This is the long-range ultra fantasy 45-day model run. These longer-range ensembles are suitable for examining long-range trends in the overall weather pattern. They should never be used or considered a forecast. We see below higher hights with drier weather in the region through most of October.
46-Day Fantasy Snowfall Outlook
These long-range snowfall outlooks are good for trends, and should never be considered a forecast. One thing I see in the long-range is a change to colder and snowier weather around 10/23 into the first week of November.
First Look at Snowfall Season 2024-25
9-5-2024 – When looking ahead to the next snowfall season, predicting what might happen is difficult at this time of year. If a weak La Nina does form (66%), there is a good chance we will have a drier-than-average snowfall season.
However, several very big winters have come from weak La Ninas over the last 25 years. (See the La Nina Winter chart down the page.) Everyone must also remember that many other factors are at play than just warm or cooler water along the Pacific equator.
For now, Ted (Powder Forecast) and I are not forecasting what the winter might be like. We will better understand how this may play out in late October / early November. As we have all seen in the past, patterns can quickly flip and change in late December and January.
La Nina seasons are like El Nino and can bring drought, moderate winters, or large ones. Many factors are at play, and the situation can change as the winter season starts to ramp up in mid-to-late December.
Let’s keep the positive vibes that Mammoth Mountain gets a perfect winter, with moderate amounts of powder snow mixed in with some dry periods and endless wind-buff days.
Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman
PS The new runs of the ECMWF Seasonal come out for forecasters on the 5th of each month.
La Nina Years Snowfall Totals for Mammoth Mountain
Weak La Nina
1971-72 Snowfall Total = 268 with 139 in December
1984-85 Snowfall Total = 236
2000-01 Snowfall Total = 393 with 124 in February
2005-06 Snowfall Total = 578 with 4 100+ inch snowfall months
2008-09 Snowfall Total = 470 with 2 100+ inch snowfall months
2016-17 Snowfall Total = 617 with 245 January 163 February
2017-18 Snowfall Total = 262 with 142 in March
Moderate La Nina
1970-71 Snowfall Total = 255
1995-96 Snowfall Total = 321
2011-12 Snowfall Total = 263
2020-21 Snowfall Total = 244.5
2021-22 Snowfall Total = 260
Strong La Nina
1973-74 Snowfall Total = 306
1975-76 Snowfall Total = 197
1988-89 Snowfall Total = 251
1998-99 Snowfall Total = 323
1999-00 Snowfall Total = 382
2007-08 Snowfall Total = 333
2010-11 Snowfall Total = 668
2022-2023 Snowfall Total = 717 – Largest Winter Recorded over the last 100 years
ENSO Watch
Last Update from DWP Precipitation for Mammoth Pass & the Eastern Sierra
*Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather is updated on Sunday, Tuesday & Thursday by local Steve Taylor, the Mammoth Snowman. The goal is to provide detailed weather forecasts presented in an easy-to-read format. This isn’t a Hype, one-and-done model-run website. It’s just the basic facts from how I see it after 40 years of being involved in local weather and recreation. And yes, I use Weather Bell for my forecasting data. Snowman
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