Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast
Including Mammoth Lakes & Bishop, California
Thursday, October 11th, 2024 – Good morning. Warm and dry conditions continue today before a weak low-pressure system will bring a bit of cooling for the weekend, along with some breezy conditions.
Short-wave ridging builds into the area for Monday into next Tuesday, with warming temperatures. By next Wednesday, the next upstream system will bring much cooler weather with a slight chance of showers.
The windowcast and current conditions show that Mammoth Mountain and the Southern Eastern Sierra are under pt cloudy skies as of this post.
Mammoth Weather Forecast for Your Adventure
Short-Term Forecast into Tuesday: For the Main Lodge area, midday temperatures at the 8900-foot level will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
The wind forecast for the next few days calls for a southwest flow. Winds will be light during the overnight hours and then increase during the late morning and afternoon hours.
Wind Speed at the 8900-foot level will be 5-10 MPH, with gusts in the 20-25 MPH range during the afternoon hours. Wind gusts up top will be a bit stronger, at 30–40 MPH at times.
In Mammoth Lakes, midday temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s and then mid to lower 60s Thursday into the weekend. Overnight lows will be in the mid-upper 40s with light winds.
For Bishop to Mill Pond, mid-day highs will be in the mid- to upper 80s today Friday, with lower 80s this weekend. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
NWS Service Forecast for Main Lodge & the Mammoth Lakes Basin @ 8900 Feet in Elevation
Mammoth Mountain Area Forecast Discussion
The next weak upstream low will cut off and approach the northern California coast today. The low will weaken, and weak troughing will influence the area into the weekend. Temperatures will fall into the weekend but will still be above seasonal averages.
Early next week, short-wave riding moves into the area in front of the next deeper low-pressure system, which will arrive around next Wednesday.
That system would bring much cooler weather to the area, with some clouds and a chance for dusting snow on Mammoth Mountain and the Sierra crest.
Around day 8-10, more short wave ridging will be moving through the area for warm and dry Fall weather.
The extended range shows a possible system coming in around the 23rd to the 25th. Currently, most ensemble models have a good dusting of snow at that time. The ECMWF ENS Control model has a decent storm but is the odd model out now.
Looking into the weather trends in the Ultra Fantasy Outlook period for the first two weeks of November, cooler weather with snow showers shows up on the ECM, GEFS, and CFS long-range fantasy models.
See all the images that support todays forecast down the page.
Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman
The next full weather page update will be on Sunday, October 13th, by 5 PM.
Mammoth Weather Forecast Data from Weather Bell
ECM Ensemble Model 500
10-Day ECM 500mb Anomaly GIF: Below is the entire 15-day run of the ECMWF ensemble model. I use this model to tell the Mammoth Weather Story you just read above. Compared to the other models, this solution has been effective more often than others over the years.
ECMWF Ensemble Jet Stream Gif
This is the Eastern Pacific View of the ECMWF ENSEMBLE Run of the Jet Stream.
Temperature Forecast GIF
*Temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value
The Wind Forecast
The wind forecast for the next few days calls for a west-to-south-west flow. Wind speed at the 8900-foot level will be 5-10 MPH with gusts in the 15-25 MPH range during the afternoon hours. Wind gusts up top will be a bit stronger at 30-40 MPH at times.
QPF Forecast
Next week’s low-pressure system will bring in some light amounts of QPF around late Wednesday / Thursday.
Snowfall Forecast & Outlook Images
Most models show the area getting little to no snowfall from the current low on the northern California Coast. The next chance for a dusting of snow will be from October 23rd to 25th.
Below are 3 snowfall images; the first is the 144-hour forecast into next Thursday. The following 2 are OUTLOOKS not forecast, one is the ECMWF ENS CONTROL model and the last is the ECMWF ENS MEAN. The Control model has a decent storm around the 23rd to 25th, while the full Ensemble Run is more realistic at this point in time.
Precipitable Water
45-Day Long Range Fantasy Outlook
This is the long-range ultra fantasy 45-day model run. These longer-range ensembles are suitable for examining long-range trends in the overall weather pattern. They should never be used or considered a forecast.
46-Day Ultra Fantasy Snowfall Outlook
These long-range snowfall outlooks are good for trends. They should never be considered a forecast. One thing I see in the long-range trend here is a change to cooler weather with some light snow showers around the 23rd of October into the second week of November. We see this to varying degrees in all the longer-range ensemble models.
Winter Outlook as of October 11th, 2024
Thinking about potential snowfall and the upcoming winter season is getting exciting. Let’s take a look at what this upcoming snowfall season might hold.
The first issue in looking out into the weather for the snow season in mid-October is simple. Many of the factors that will come into play to influence this upcoming winter won’t be on the table until 4-6 weeks from now.
What we can do is look at the ENSO factor. With the newest seasonal long-range fantasy model run in, the ECMWF Seasonal has a weak La Niña in place through at least January.
During February, the La Nina looks to fade to natural, adding a whole new factor to the second half of the Winter Outlook that we won’t touch this far out.
Below are the winters considered weak La Ninas over the last 30 years. One was a drought season, one an average winter, and four above-average winters. 2023 was the largest winter ever recorded by Mammoth Mountain Ski Patrol and DWP.
- 2000-2001 – Total Snowfall 393
- 2005-2006 – Total Snowfall 578
- 2008-2009 – Total Snowfall 470
- 2016-2017 – Total Snowfall 617
- 2017-2018 – Total Snowfall 262
- 2022-2023 – Total Snowfall 721
The ECMWF Seasonal (see images below) updated this month shows the snow season starting with average snowfall for November and December. Beyond that, snowfall lags below average for January and February, with an average March being shown way out in Weather Model Neverland.
As we wait for the snow season, remember that La Ninas are much like El Nino winters. There is no one specific outcome; you can get massive snowfall or a total bust.
Let’s keep the positive vibes that Mammoth Mountain gets a perfect winter, with moderate amounts of powder snow mixed in with some dry periods with endless wind-buff days.
Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman
PS: The next update for this snowfall section will be 11/6/24.
La Nina Years Snowfall Totals for Mammoth Mountain
Weak La Nina
1971-72 Snowfall Total = 268 with 139 in December
1984-85 Snowfall Total = 236
2000-01 Snowfall Total = 393 with 124 in February
2005-06 Snowfall Total = 578 with 4 100+ inch snowfall months
2008-09 Snowfall Total = 470 with 2 100+ inch snowfall months
2016-17 Snowfall Total = 617 with 245 January 163 February
2017-18 Snowfall Total = 262 with 142 in March
Moderate La Nina
1970-71 Snowfall Total = 255
1995-96 Snowfall Total = 321
2011-12 Snowfall Total = 263
2020-21 Snowfall Total = 244.5
2021-22 Snowfall Total = 260
Strong La Nina
1973-74 Snowfall Total = 306
1975-76 Snowfall Total = 197
1988-89 Snowfall Total = 251
1998-99 Snowfall Total = 323
1999-00 Snowfall Total = 382
2007-08 Snowfall Total = 333
2010-11 Snowfall Total = 668
2022-2023 Snowfall Total = 717 – Largest Winter Recorded over the last 100 years
ENSO Watch
Last Update from DWP Precipitation for Mammoth Pass & the Eastern Sierra
*Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather is updated on Sunday, Tuesday & Thursday by local Steve Taylor, the Mammoth Snowman. The goal is to provide detailed weather forecasts presented in an easy-to-read format. This isn’t a Hype, one-and-done model-run website. It’s just the basic facts from how I see it after 40 years of being involved in local weather and recreation. And yes, I use Weather Bell for my forecasting data. Snowman
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