Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast
Including Mammoth Lakes & Bishop, California
Tuesday, October 15th, 2024 @ 8:30 AM: Good morning. This morning, the area will have hazy skies. Today will be the last warmer day in the area, as two systems will work through the area Wednesday into Friday. Both systems offer up to 30% light snow showers on Wednesday afternoons and evenings and again on Thursday nights. Little to no snow accumulation is expected as there will be limited moisture to work with, and system 2 is an inside slider.
Along with the snow showers, expect increasing winds and a 15-20 degree drop in temperatures by Friday. If you live in the high country, expect a good solid freeze for several nights, so get any sensitive plants inside after today. Next weekend expect a 10 degree warm up with clear skies for the Eastern Sierra region.
Mammoth Weather Forecast for Your Adventure
Short-Term Forecast into Saturday: Expect clear skies into early Wednesday and then PT cloudy at times with a 30% chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Snow levels will be around 9500 feet, rising to 10,500 feet. On Thursday night, there will be a second chance for snow showers, with both events bringing little to no accumulation.
Midday temperatures at the 8900-foot level for the Main Lodge area will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s through Tuesday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Temperatures will drop into the lower 50s on Wednesday, the upper 40s on Thursday, and the upper 30s on Friday.
Overnight lows will get chilly, with a low Thursday at sunrise around 34 degrees and then on Friday before sunrise at 26 degrees. Early Saturday also looks below freezing, with a 29.
The wind forecast for the next few days calls for a southwest flow, with increased wind speeds from Thursday through Friday. For today, expect the wind to be 5-10 MPH with gusts in the 15-25 MPH range. Upper elevations wind gusts later Wednesday into Friday could reach the 40-50+ MPH range.
In Mammoth Lakes, midday temperatures will be in the upper 60s into Tuesday, with a 59 on Wednesday, a 55 on Thursday, and a chilly 44 on Friday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s tonight and then drop to 33 by early Thursday, 25 by early Friday, and 28 by early Friday.
For Bishop to Mill Pond, mid-day highs will be in the low to mid-80s today, with the mid to upper 70s Wednesday into Thursday. Friday offers a high of 61. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Winds will be SW at 5-10 with gusts in the 15-25+ MPH range.
Mammoth Mountain Area Forecast Discussion
By next weekend, more ridging will be moving through the area for warmer and dryer fall weather into the following Monday/Tuesday time frame.
The extended range shows the system coming in around the 23rd of the month. Currently, most ensemble models have a decent dusting to several inches of snow coming down from late on the 23rd into the 28th. After that, ensemble models keep troughing over California, with the ECM ENS continuing to show snow showers at times into the 30th of the month.
Looking into the weather trends in the Ultra Fantasy Outlook period for the first two weeks of November, the month looks to start with warmer and dryer days and then switch to some possible cooler weather with snowfall over Mammoth Mountain for week 2.
At this point, all the ensemble models running far out in time show November’s snowfall to be slightly below average. Yesterday’s run of the weeklies (see down the page) shows that the 46-day snowfall forecast has a couple of feet of snow for the high country, with the ECM Control showing double that amount.
Looking at past weak La Nina Novembers, there have been six over the last 30 years; 5 show 2 feet of snowfall, and one of those years had 60 inches. If the mountain could pick up two feet of base snow, that would be a big bonus for the Snowmaking Team in November.
(See all the images that support today’s Outlook discussion down the page.)
Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman
The next full weather page update will be on Thursday, October 17th, by 5 PM. Yes, I canceled my trip this week, so there will be more updates. 🙂
Mammoth Weather Forecast Data from Weather Bell
ECM Ensemble Model 500
10-Day ECM 500mb Anomaly GIF: Below is the entire 15-day run of the ECMWF ensemble model. I use this model to tell the Mammoth Weather Story you just read above. Compared to the other models, this solution has been effective more often than others over the years.
ECMWF Ensemble Jet Stream Gif
This is the Eastern Pacific View of the ECMWF ENSEMBLE Run of the Jet Stream.
Temperature Forecast GIF
*Temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value
The Wind Forecast
The wind forecast for the next few days calls for a west-to-south-west flow. Wind speed at the 8900-foot level will be 5-10 MPH with gusts in the 15-25 MPH range during the afternoon. Winds will increase in all areas on Thursday and Friday, with gusts in the higher elevations in the 40-50 range.
QPF Forecast
The Thursday low-pressure system will bring in some light amounts of QPF. In the extended time frame, more light precipitation is headed our way around the 23rd and beyond.
Snowfall Forecast & Outlook Images
For this week there will be a slight chance for a very light snow shower along the Sierra Crest on Thursday. The next chance for a dusting of snow that will turn the ground white will be from October 23rd to 29th. That is way out in fantasy land at this point, but it bears watching this week.
45-Day Long Range Fantasy Outlook GIF
This is the long-range ultra fantasy 45-day model run. These longer-range ensembles are suitable for examining long-range trends in the overall weather pattern. They should never be used or considered a forecast.
46-Day Ultra Fantasy Snowfall Outlook GIF
Winter Outlook as of October 11th, 2024
Thinking about potential snowfall and the upcoming winter season is getting exciting. Let’s take a look at what this upcoming snowfall season might hold.
The first issue in looking out into the weather for the snow season in mid-October is simple. Many of the factors that will come into play to influence this upcoming winter won’t be on the table until 4-6 weeks from now.
What we can do is look at the ENSO factor. With the newest seasonal long-range fantasy model run in, the ECMWF Seasonal has a weak La Niña in place through at least January.
During February, the La Nina looks to fade to natural, adding a whole new factor to the second half of the Winter Outlook that we won’t touch this far out.
Below are the winters considered weak La Ninas over the last 30 years. One was a drought season, one an average winter, and four above-average winters. 2023 was the largest winter ever recorded by Mammoth Mountain Ski Patrol and DWP.
- 2000-2001 – Total Snowfall 393
- 2005-2006 – Total Snowfall 578
- 2008-2009 – Total Snowfall 470
- 2016-2017 – Total Snowfall 617
- 2017-2018 – Total Snowfall 262
- 2022-2023 – Total Snowfall 721
The ECMWF Seasonal (see images below) updated this month shows the snow season starting with average snowfall for November and December. Beyond that, snowfall lags below average for January and February, with an average March being shown way out in Weather Model Neverland.
As we wait for the snow season, remember that La Ninas are much like El Nino winters. There is no one specific outcome; you can get massive snowfall or a total bust.
Let’s keep the positive vibes that Mammoth Mountain gets a perfect winter, with moderate amounts of powder snow mixed in with some dry periods with endless wind-buff days.
Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman
PS: The next update for this snowfall section will be 11/6/24.
La Nina Years Snowfall Totals for Mammoth Mountain
Weak La Nina
1971-72 Snowfall Total = 268 with 139 in December
1984-85 Snowfall Total = 236
2000-01 Snowfall Total = 393 with 124 in February
2005-06 Snowfall Total = 578 with 4 100+ inch snowfall months
2008-09 Snowfall Total = 470 with 2 100+ inch snowfall months
2016-17 Snowfall Total = 617 with 245 January 163 February
2017-18 Snowfall Total = 262 with 142 in March
Moderate La Nina
1970-71 Snowfall Total = 255
1995-96 Snowfall Total = 321
2011-12 Snowfall Total = 263
2020-21 Snowfall Total = 244.5
2021-22 Snowfall Total = 260
Strong La Nina
1973-74 Snowfall Total = 306
1975-76 Snowfall Total = 197
1988-89 Snowfall Total = 251
1998-99 Snowfall Total = 323
1999-00 Snowfall Total = 382
2007-08 Snowfall Total = 333
2010-11 Snowfall Total = 668
2022-2023 Snowfall Total = 717 – Largest Winter Recorded over the last 100 years
ENSO Watch
Last Update from DWP Precipitation for Mammoth Pass & the Eastern Sierra
*Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather is updated on Sunday, Tuesday & Thursday by local Steve Taylor, the Mammoth Snowman. The goal is to provide detailed weather forecasts presented in an easy-to-read format. This isn’t a Hype, one-and-done model-run website. It’s just the basic facts from how I see it after 40 years of being involved in local weather and recreation. And yes, I use Weather Bell for my forecasting data. Snowman
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