Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast
Including Mammoth Lakes & Bishop, California
Thursday, October 17th, 2024 @ 4 PM Today, we have a second low-pressure system that will affect the area into early Saturday. This system is a drier inside slider that will bring in a few overnight clouds and possibly snowflakes or a dusting above the 8,000-foot level.
The main effects of this second low will be the much cooler air moving in along with gusty N to NE winds. You can also expect a hard freeze in the high country, with freezing conditions down to Bishop.
As the system quickly drops to the SE, the next ridge of high presure will move in by Friday evening. The upcoming weekend will offer clear skies and temperatures slowly rebounding from the effects of the inside slider. The clear and warm days are expected to last well into next week.
Short-Term Forecast into Saturday: Midday temperatures at the Main Lodge (8,900 Feet) will be in the mid-40s today, with lower 40s on Friday. Over the weekend, midday temperatures will be in the low 50s on Saturday, with upper 50s by Sunday and Monday.
The overnight lows will be in the lower 20s tonight, then in the upper 20s to lower 30s on Friday night, and in the mid-30s on Saturday night.
The wind forecast for the next few days calls for a SW wind today at 15-25 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH at the 9000-foot level. Over the higher elevations, expect wind gusts 30-40 MPH.
On Friday, winds will be NE at 15-25 MPH at the 9000-foot level, with higher elevations seeing winds in the 45-65 MPH range. The wind speeds will back off over the weekend under an NE flow.
In Mammoth Lakes, midday temperatures will be in the low 40s today and mid 40s on Friday. Over the weekend, midday temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Tonight’s overnight low will be in the low twenties, with upper 20s on Friday and lower 30s on Saturday night.
For Bishop to Mill Pond, mid-day highs will be in the mid-60s on Friday, lower 70s on Saturday, and upper 70s on Sunday.
Overnight lows will be in the lower 30s the next couple of nights, then in the mid-30s Saturday night and lower 40s on Sunday. Expect gusty winds at times, with 40 MPH winds possible for Thursday night into early Friday and then gusts to 30 MPH into Friday night.
Mammoth Mountain Exteneded Forecast Discussion
Next week looks clear and dry until the end of the week, when the next chance for dusting will arrive. Unfortunately, that week looks less promising for snowfall than in my last couple of updates.
The models are wavering a bit now, so I will wait to comment on next week until my next update. Hopefully, by then, there will be some consensus among the data about what to expect.
Looking into the weather trends in the Ultra Fantasy Outlook period for the first two weeks of November, the month looks to start with warmer and dryer days and then switch to some possible cooler weather with snowfall over Mammoth Mountain around week two.
At this point, all the ensemble models running far out in time show November’s snowfall to be slightly below average. Yesterday’s run of the weeklies (see down the page) shows that the 46-day snowfall outlook has a couple of feet of snow for the high country, with the ECM Control going crazy with 6-8 feet.
Looking at past weak La Nina Novembers, there have been six over the last 30 years; 5 show 2 feet of snowfall, and one of those years had 60 inches. If the mountain could pick up two feet of base snow, that would be a big bonus for the Snowmaking Team in November.
(See all the images that support today’s Outlook discussion down the page.)
Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman
Mammoth Weather Forecast Data from Weather Bell
ECM Ensemble Model 500
10-Day ECM 500mb Anomaly GIF: Below is the entire 15-day run of the ECMWF ensemble model. I use this model to tell the Mammoth Weather Story you just read above. Compared to the other models, this solution has been effective more often than others over the years.
ECMWF Ensemble Jet Stream Gif
This is the Eastern Pacific View of the ECMWF ENSEMBLE Run of the Jet Stream.
Temperature Forecast GIF
*Temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value
The Wind Forecast
The wind forecast for the next few days calls for a west-to-south-west flow. Wind speed at the 8900-foot level will be 5-10 MPH with gusts in the 15-25 MPH range during the afternoon. Winds will increase in all areas on Thursday and Friday, with gusts in the higher elevations in the 40-50 range.
QPF Forecast
Snowfall Forecast & Outlook Images
45-Day Long Range Fantasy Outlook GIF
This is the long-range ultra fantasy 45-day model run. These longer-range ensembles are suitable for examining long-range trends in the overall weather pattern. They should never be used or considered a forecast.
46-Day Ultra Fantasy Snowfall Outlook
Winter Outlook as of October 11th, 2024
Thinking about potential snowfall and the upcoming winter season is getting exciting. Let’s take a look at what this upcoming snowfall season might hold.
The first issue in looking out into the weather for the snow season in mid-October is simple. Many of the factors that will come into play to influence this upcoming winter won’t be on the table until 4-6 weeks from now.
What we can do is look at the ENSO factor. With the newest seasonal long-range fantasy model run in, the ECMWF Seasonal has a weak La Niña in place through at least January.
During February, the La Nina looks to fade to natural, adding a whole new factor to the second half of the Winter Outlook that we won’t touch this far out.
Below are the winters considered weak La Ninas over the last 30 years. One was a drought season, one an average winter, and four above-average winters. 2023 was the largest winter ever recorded by Mammoth Mountain Ski Patrol and DWP.
- 2000-2001 – Total Snowfall 393
- 2005-2006 – Total Snowfall 578
- 2008-2009 – Total Snowfall 470
- 2016-2017 – Total Snowfall 617
- 2017-2018 – Total Snowfall 262
- 2022-2023 – Total Snowfall 721
The ECMWF Seasonal (see images below) updated this month shows the snow season starting with average snowfall for November and December. Beyond that, snowfall lags below average for January and February, with an average March being shown way out in Weather Model Neverland.
As we wait for the snow season, remember that La Ninas are much like El Nino winters. There is no one specific outcome; you can get massive snowfall or a total bust.
Let’s keep the positive vibes that Mammoth Mountain gets a perfect winter, with moderate amounts of powder snow mixed in with some dry periods with endless wind-buff days.
Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman
PS: The next update for this snowfall section will be 11/6/24.
La Nina Years Snowfall Totals for Mammoth Mountain
Weak La Nina
1971-72 Snowfall Total = 268 with 139 in December
1984-85 Snowfall Total = 236
2000-01 Snowfall Total = 393 with 124 in February
2005-06 Snowfall Total = 578 with 4 100+ inch snowfall months
2008-09 Snowfall Total = 470 with 2 100+ inch snowfall months
2016-17 Snowfall Total = 617 with 245 January 163 February
2017-18 Snowfall Total = 262 with 142 in March
Moderate La Nina
1970-71 Snowfall Total = 255
1995-96 Snowfall Total = 321
2011-12 Snowfall Total = 263
2020-21 Snowfall Total = 244.5
2021-22 Snowfall Total = 260
Strong La Nina
1973-74 Snowfall Total = 306
1975-76 Snowfall Total = 197
1988-89 Snowfall Total = 251
1998-99 Snowfall Total = 323
1999-00 Snowfall Total = 382
2007-08 Snowfall Total = 333
2010-11 Snowfall Total = 668
2022-2023 Snowfall Total = 717 – Largest Winter Recorded over the last 100 years
ENSO Watch
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