Discussion
Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast
Monday, October 28th, 2024 @ 9:30 AM – Today will be the last day of pleasant, tranquil Fall weather. Starting late Sunday, the weather pattern will change dramatically. A deepening low-pressure system will journey into the region as an inside slider.
By Monday, temperatures across the entire Eastern Sierra will drop 20-25 degrees. Light snow showers and gusty winds are also possible as the low drops toward the SE.
Snowfall accumulations will be in the 1-2 inch range above 8,000- 9,000 feet. There will be enough snow to turn the ground white around the Main Lodge and Upper Mountain.
Snowmaking conditions should be prime for making snow at night and into the early morning hours for most of next week.
3-5 Day Short-Term Forecast: Expect cloudy skies today, especially over the higher terrain. The rest of the week will offer up pt cloudy skies at times.
Midday temperatures at the Main Lodge (8,900 Feet) will be in the mid-30s to upper 30s most of the week, with lower 40s on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the lower 20s for the next couple of nights and then upper 20s to lower 30s into Friday.
Winds around Main Lodge will be out of the SW at 15-25 MPH today, with gusts over the top of the 40-55 MPH range; winds will then back off into early Thursday.
Mammoth Mountain Weather Discussion
Updated on Monday 10-28-24 @ 10 AM
Days 1-7 Forecast Discussion: Over the next seven days, two inside sliders will affect the area. The first low will push out the warmer air mass, bringing in a big 20-30-degree temperature drop by Tuesday.
After a brief warm-up on Wednesday, the next inside slider will bring additional cold air and a possibility for more light snow showers late in the week.
Days 8-14 Outlook Discussion: The second inside slider mentioned above will still affect the area on Days 8 and 9 (next weekend) with cooler air and possibly a few light snow showers.
On Day 10, the next strong ridge of high presure will be right behind the exiting slider. The ridge is slowly progressive and looks to keep Mammoth dry with warmer days into day 14 / November 9.
Ultra Fantasy Outlook for November: Overall, my outlook for the month would be for 2-3 low-pressure systems to move through the area with moderate to solid ridging between systems. Snowfall is expected to be a bit below average.
There have been six weak La Nina Novembers over the last 24 years; here is what happened with the snowfall on Mammoth Mountain at 9,000 feet.
- 2000-2001 – November Snowfall 22.8
- 2005-2006 – November Snowfall 23.4
- 2008-2009 – November Snowfall 26.5
- 2016-2017 – November Snowfall 19
- 2017-2018 – November Snowfall 34
- 2022-2023 – November Snowfall 61
Looking at all the Fantasy Long Range Outlook data from last week, most of the more extended ensemble models support what we have seen from weak La Nina Novembers from the past.
I am forever hopeful that we will get a big dump of snow soon.
Steve Taylor – The Snowman
Mammoth Weather Forecast Data from Weather Bell
ECMWF Ensemble Jet Stream Gif
This is the Eastern Pacific View of the ECMWF ENSEMBLE Run of the Jet Stream.
Temperature Forecast GIF
*Temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value
The Wind Forecast Gif
QPF Forecast
Snowfall Forecast & Outlook Images
Winter Outlook as of October 11th, 2024
Thinking about potential snowfall and the upcoming winter season is getting exciting. Let’s take a look at what this upcoming snowfall season might hold.
The first issue in looking out into the weather for the snow season in mid-October is simple. Many of the factors that will come into play to influence this upcoming winter won’t be on the table until 4-6 weeks from now.
What we can do is look at the ENSO factor. With the newest seasonal long-range fantasy model run in, the ECMWF Seasonal has a weak La Niña in place through at least January.
During February, the La Nina looks to fade to natural, adding a whole new factor to the second half of the Winter Outlook that we won’t touch this far out.
Below are the winters considered weak La Ninas over the last 30 years. One was a drought season, one an average winter, and four above-average winters. 2023 was the largest winter ever recorded by Mammoth Mountain Ski Patrol and DWP.
- 2000-2001 – Total Snowfall 393
- 2005-2006 – Total Snowfall 578
- 2008-2009 – Total Snowfall 470
- 2016-2017 – Total Snowfall 617
- 2017-2018 – Total Snowfall 262
- 2022-2023 – Total Snowfall 721
The ECMWF Seasonal (see images below) updated this month shows the snow season starting with average snowfall for November and December. Beyond that, snowfall lags below average for January and February, with an average March being shown way out in Weather Model Neverland.
As we wait for the snow season, remember that La Ninas are much like El Nino winters. There is no one specific outcome; you can get massive snowfall or a total bust.
Let’s keep the positive vibes that Mammoth Mountain gets a perfect winter, with moderate amounts of powder snow mixed in with some dry periods with endless wind-buff days.
Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman
PS: The next update for this snowfall section will be 11/6/24.
La Nina Years Snowfall Totals for Mammoth Mountain
Weak La Nina
1971-72 Snowfall Total = 268 with 139 in December
1984-85 Snowfall Total = 236
2000-01 Snowfall Total = 393 with 124 in February
2005-06 Snowfall Total = 578 with 4 100+ inch snowfall months
2008-09 Snowfall Total = 470 with 2 100+ inch snowfall months
2016-17 Snowfall Total = 617 with 245 January 163 February
2017-18 Snowfall Total = 262 with 142 in March
2022-23 Snowfall Total = 717 – Largest Winter Recorded over the last 100 years
Moderate La Nina
1970-71 Snowfall Total = 255
1995-96 Snowfall Total = 321
2011-12 Snowfall Total = 263
2020-21 Snowfall Total = 244.5
2021-22 Snowfall Total = 260
Strong La Nina
1973-74 Snowfall Total = 306
1975-76 Snowfall Total = 197
1988-89 Snowfall Total = 251
1998-99 Snowfall Total = 323
1999-00 Snowfall Total = 382
2007-08 Snowfall Total = 333
2010-11 Snowfall Total = 668
Last Update from DWP Precipitation for Mammoth Pass & the Eastern Sierra
*Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather is updated on Sunday, Tuesday & Thursday by local Steve Taylor, the Mammoth Snowman. The goal is to provide detailed weather forecasts presented in an easy-to-read format. This isn’t a Hype, one-and-done model-run website. It’s just the basic facts from how I see it after 40 years of being involved in local weather and recreation. And yes, I use Weather Bell for my forecasting data. Snowman
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