Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast
Friday, October 12th, 2024 @ 10 AM A fast-moving deep inside slider and its cold front will start to affect the area over the next 24 hours. Today, expect increasing winds with some clouds moving late in the day.
Snowfall looks to move in after midnight, with 1-3 inches possible into mid-morning on Saturday. Snow levels will be around the 7500-foot level.
After that, expect cool days under clear skies with gusty NE winds over higher elevations. By mid-week, the next weaker inside slider will bring more N to NE winds and some reinforcing cool air, but without the snow showers this time around.
Overall, the first two weeks of November are looking dry. The next significant change in the pattern has been showing up around mid-month or opening weekend.
3-5 Day Short-Term Forecast: Skies will remain mostly clear today, with just a few high clouds streaming in from Hurricane Kristy to our SW.
Expect partly cloudy skies by Sunday afternoon, and then on Monday and Tuesday, skies will be mostly cloudy with a chance for light snow showers.
Midday temperatures at the Main Lodge (8,900 Feet) will be in the upper lower 60s today, lower 50s on Sunday, and then the mid-30s on Monday and Tuesday, with lower 40s on Wednesday.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s tonight, then in the mid-30s Sunday night and into the mid-twenties Monday and Tuesday night.
Winds around Main Lodge will be out of the SW at 5-15 MPH today, with stronger gusts, especially over the upper Mountain. Wind speeds increase on Sunday with an SW wind at 25-35 MPH with gusts in the 50-60 MPH range at Main Lodge. Wind gusts over the higher terrain will be in the 60-80 MPH range into early Monday and then back off by mid-day.
Mammoth Mountain Weather Discussion
Updated on Friday 11-1-24 @ 10 AM
Days 1-7 Forecast Discussion: The inside slider pattern remains in place as the following two low presure systems will pass by just to our east into Sunday. The first system has enough moisture to bring in 1-3 inches of possible snowfall.
The second system will bring in more cold air but is mostly dry. By Monday into early Tuesday, some brief ridging will set up before the next dry slider drops in mid-day. That third slider during this time frame will bring in some very gusty N to NE Winds.
A large progressive ridge over the Pacific Northwest will rule days 6 and 7.
Days 8-14 Fanasty Outlook Discussion: By day 8, higher heights rule the outlook over the area again. Starting at day 9, ensemble models are at odds, with the ECM ENS showing higher heights and the GEFS showing troughing moving in with much cooler air and more snow showers.
Way out, on day 14, all ensemble models show a pattern change from dry and warm to cooler and wetter. Right now, confidence in any outcome in the 8-14-day period is very low, so it’s time to wait and see.
Ultra Fantasy Outlook for November: Overall, my outlook for the month would be for 2-3 low-pressure systems to move through the area with moderate to solid ridging between systems. Snowfall is expected to be a bit below average.
There have been six weak La Nina Novembers over the last 24 years; here is what happened with the snowfall on Mammoth Mountain at 9,000 feet.
- 2000-2001 – November Snowfall 22.8
- 2005-2006 – November Snowfall 23.4
- 2008-2009 – November Snowfall 26.5
- 2016-2017 – November Snowfall 19
- 2017-2018 – November Snowfall 34
- 2022-2023 – November Snowfall 61
Looking at all the Fantasy Long Range Outlook data from last week, most of the more extended ensemble models support what we have seen from weak La Nina Novembers from the past.
I am forever hopeful that we will get a big dump of snow soon.
Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman
Mammoth Weather Forecast Data from Weather Bell
ECMWF Ensemble Jet Stream Gif
This is the Northern Pacific View of the ECMWF ENSEMBLE Run of the Jet Stream. The jet is starting to really eamp up as wwe move towards November. I see a possible big change in the pattern around mid month.
Temperature Forecast GIF
*Temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value
The Wind Forecast Gif
QPF Forecast
Snowfall Forecast & Outlook Images
Winter Outlook as of October 11th, 2024
Thinking about potential snowfall and the upcoming winter season is getting exciting. Let’s take a look at what this upcoming snowfall season might hold.
The first issue in looking out into the weather for the snow season in mid-October is simple. Many of the factors that will come into play to influence this upcoming winter won’t be on the table until 4-6 weeks from now.
What we can do is look at the ENSO factor. With the newest seasonal long-range fantasy model run in, the ECMWF Seasonal has a weak La Niña in place through at least January.
During February, the La Nina looks to fade to natural, adding a whole new factor to the second half of the Winter Outlook that we won’t touch this far out.
Below are the winters considered weak La Ninas over the last 30 years. One was a drought season, one an average winter, and four above-average winters. 2023 was the largest winter ever recorded by Mammoth Mountain Ski Patrol and DWP.
- 2000-2001 – Total Snowfall 393
- 2005-2006 – Total Snowfall 578
- 2008-2009 – Total Snowfall 470
- 2016-2017 – Total Snowfall 617
- 2017-2018 – Total Snowfall 262
- 2022-2023 – Total Snowfall 721
The ECMWF Seasonal (see images below) updated this month shows the snow season starting with average snowfall for November and December. Beyond that, snowfall lags below average for January and February, with an average March being shown way out in Weather Model Neverland.
As we wait for the snow season, remember that La Ninas are much like El Nino winters. There is no one specific outcome; you can get massive snowfall or a total bust.
Let’s keep the positive vibes that Mammoth Mountain gets a perfect winter, with moderate amounts of powder snow mixed in with some dry periods with endless wind-buff days.
Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman
PS: The next update for this snowfall section will be 11/6/24.
La Nina Years Snowfall Totals for Mammoth Mountain
Weak La Nina
1971-72 Snowfall Total = 268 with 139 in December
1984-85 Snowfall Total = 236
2000-01 Snowfall Total = 393 with 124 in February
2005-06 Snowfall Total = 578 with 4 100+ inch snowfall months
2008-09 Snowfall Total = 470 with 2 100+ inch snowfall months
2016-17 Snowfall Total = 617 with 245 January 163 February
2017-18 Snowfall Total = 262 with 142 in March
2022-23 Snowfall Total = 717 – Largest Winter Recorded over the last 100 years
Moderate La Nina
1970-71 Snowfall Total = 255
1995-96 Snowfall Total = 321
2011-12 Snowfall Total = 263
2020-21 Snowfall Total = 244.5
2021-22 Snowfall Total = 260
Strong La Nina
1973-74 Snowfall Total = 306
1975-76 Snowfall Total = 197
1988-89 Snowfall Total = 251
1998-99 Snowfall Total = 323
1999-00 Snowfall Total = 382
2007-08 Snowfall Total = 333
2010-11 Snowfall Total = 668
Last Update from DWP Precipitation for Mammoth Pass & the Eastern Sierra
*Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather is updated on Sunday, Tuesday & Thursday by local Steve Taylor, the Mammoth Snowman. The goal is to provide detailed weather forecasts presented in an easy-to-read format. This isn’t a Hype, one-and-done model-run website. It’s just the basic facts from how I see it after 40 years of being involved in local weather and recreation. And yes, I use Weather Bell for my forecasting data. Snowman
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