Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast
Sunday, November 3rd, 2024 @ 3 PM – The series of endless inside slider Lows will continue this week. The current slider exits the area tonight, and the next one enters late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
While this pattern is not conducive to much snowfall, at least it’s cold during the night and mornings, so snowmaking crews are making significant progress.
Overall, the first two weeks of November are looking drier than average. The next significant change in the pattern has been showing up around mid-month or opening weekend.
3-5 Day Short-Term Forecast: Skies will remain mostly clear with just a few clouds in the area at times this week.
Midday temperatures at the Main Lodge (8,900 Feet) will be in the mid-30s today, with a warm-up into the mid to upper 40s on Monday and Tuesday. By Friday, a high of 50 shows up on today’s data.
Winds will be out of the N to NE around the Main Lodge at 15-25 MPH, with gusts up to 30-35 MPH. Over the higher elevations of Mammoth Mountain, wind gusts will be in the 45-55 MPH range.
Overnight lows will be in the mid-20s, except for Monday night, when they will be in the low to mid-30s.
Mammoth Lakes: This week, expect mid-day highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with mid-50s by Friday.
For Bishop, highs are in the upper 50s today, with upper 60s to lower 70s expected this week. Overnight lows will be chilly, in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with a 23 forecasted for early Thursday morning.
Mammoth Mountain Weather Discussion
Days 1-7 Forecast Discussion: A deep low is sliding down east of the Sierra Crest this afternoon. By Monday, higher heights will take over the area. Then, the next in the endless series of inside sliders will be making its presence known by mid-week.
At the end of the week, the sliders are gone, and the area warms up a bit under more high presure.
Days 8-14 Fanasty Outlook Discussion: From day 8 into day 9, the following system moves into the area, bringing additional cold air and light snowfall accumulations. The ECM has more of a slider, with the GEFS more westward with this low.
The models start to diverge from Day 10 onward. At this time, I have little confidence in any outcome beyond Day 7. In my mid-morning post on Tuesday, we will revisit this time frame and see if there is more clarity on what might happen.
Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman
14 Day – ECMWF 500mb Height Anomaly Outlook
Mammoth Weather Forecast Data from Weather Bell
ECMWF Ensemble Jet Stream Gif
This is the Northern Pacific View of the ECMWF ENSEMBLE Run of the Jet Stream. The jet is starting to really eamp up as wwe move towards November. I see a possible big change in the pattern around mid month.
Temperature Forecast GIF
*Temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value
The Wind Forecast Gif
QPF Forecast
Snowfall Forecast & Outlook Images
Winter Outlook as of October 11th, 2024
Thinking about potential snowfall and the upcoming winter season is getting exciting. Let’s take a look at what this upcoming snowfall season might hold.
The first issue in looking out into the weather for the snow season in mid-October is simple. Many of the factors that will come into play to influence this upcoming winter won’t be on the table until 4-6 weeks from now.
What we can do is look at the ENSO factor. With the newest seasonal long-range fantasy model run in, the ECMWF Seasonal has a weak La Niña in place through at least January.
During February, the La Nina looks to fade to natural, adding a whole new factor to the second half of the Winter Outlook that we won’t touch this far out.
Below are the winters considered weak La Ninas over the last 30 years. One was a drought season, one an average winter, and four above-average winters. 2023 was the largest winter ever recorded by Mammoth Mountain Ski Patrol and DWP.
- 2000-2001 – Total Snowfall 393
- 2005-2006 – Total Snowfall 578
- 2008-2009 – Total Snowfall 470
- 2016-2017 – Total Snowfall 617
- 2017-2018 – Total Snowfall 262
- 2022-2023 – Total Snowfall 721
The ECMWF Seasonal (see images below) updated this month shows the snow season starting with average snowfall for November and December. Beyond that, snowfall lags below average for January and February, with an average March being shown way out in Weather Model Neverland.
As we wait for the snow season, remember that La Ninas are much like El Nino winters. There is no one specific outcome; you can get massive snowfall or a total bust.
Let’s keep the positive vibes that Mammoth Mountain gets a perfect winter, with moderate amounts of powder snow mixed in with some dry periods with endless wind-buff days.
Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman
PS: The next update for this snowfall section will be 11/6/24.
La Nina Years Snowfall Totals for Mammoth Mountain
Weak La Nina
1971-72 Snowfall Total = 268 with 139 in December
1984-85 Snowfall Total = 236
2000-01 Snowfall Total = 393 with 124 in February
2005-06 Snowfall Total = 578 with 4 100+ inch snowfall months
2008-09 Snowfall Total = 470 with 2 100+ inch snowfall months
2016-17 Snowfall Total = 617 with 245 January 163 February
2017-18 Snowfall Total = 262 with 142 in March
2022-23 Snowfall Total = 717 – Largest Winter Recorded over the last 100 years
Moderate La Nina
1970-71 Snowfall Total = 255
1995-96 Snowfall Total = 321
2011-12 Snowfall Total = 263
2020-21 Snowfall Total = 244.5
2021-22 Snowfall Total = 260
Strong La Nina
1973-74 Snowfall Total = 306
1975-76 Snowfall Total = 197
1988-89 Snowfall Total = 251
1998-99 Snowfall Total = 323
1999-00 Snowfall Total = 382
2007-08 Snowfall Total = 333
2010-11 Snowfall Total = 668
Last Update from DWP Precipitation for Mammoth Pass & the Eastern Sierra
*Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather is updated on Sunday, Tuesday & Thursday by local Steve Taylor, the Mammoth Snowman. The goal is to provide detailed weather forecasts presented in an easy-to-read format. This isn’t a Hype, one-and-done model-run website. It’s just the basic facts from how I see it after 40 years of being involved in local weather and recreation. And yes, I use Weather Bell for my forecasting data. Snowman
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