Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast

Sunday, November 10th, 2024 @ 5 PM Good Sunday evening, the next weak low presure system is on the way to the Mammoth area. This one is coming in more from the west and will not be an inside slider.

On Monday, expect increasing clouds and winds, leading to a chance of snow showers late in the afternoon into the evening.

There is not much moisture with this system, only .10 to .30 in our forecast for the Mammoth Mountain area. That moisture would amount to 1-3 inches of snowfall from Main Lodge up to the top of the Mountain.

Once the cold front passes, snowmaking should resume. Overnight lows in the lower 20s are expected Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

1-3 Day Short-Term Forecast: Monday and Tuesday will have midday temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, with mid-40s on Wednesday.

Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid-30s, with upper teens to lower 20s Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Tuesday night into early Wednesday, lows will be in the lower 30s, with marginal to no snowmaking.

Tonight expect a southwest wind at Main Lodge of 20 to 25 mph increasing to 25 to 35 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 45-60+ mph up top tonight into mid-morning on Monday and will then back off into Tuesday.

Mammoth Mountain Weather Discussion

Days 1-7 Forecast Discussion: A series of weak low presure systems will move through the area. System one looks to be a quick hitter with limited moisture on Monday with 1-3 inches of snowfall.

There will be a brief period of ridging, and then the second low will affect the area Thursday into the opening weekend on Mammoth Mountain.

This system will also have limited moisture, and an additional 1-4 inches of snowfall will be possible.

Days 8-14 Outlook Discussion: By day 9, the next deep-inside slider will drop in. There will be some very cold air along with the light snow so that the Mountain snowmaking team can make snow again for several days.This slider looks close enough to Mammoth to bring more light snow (1-2 inches).

Way out on day 14, the next low is coming in from due west. However, confidence in the outlook beyond day 10 is as low as it gets.

The Longer Range: There are no signs of any moderate to heavy snowfall events anytime soon that can be trusted yet. If you’re watching the GFS model, throw it out. It’s all about the EPS ENS; all the others have been too wet. There are signs of a pattern change, but will that be ridging or and open door for heavy snowfall. Let’s hope it’s the later, stay tuned as this seasons Mammoth weather story enfolds.

Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman

PS: Moving forward, I will do my best to update this WX Discussion each Sunday by 5 PM, Tuesday by Noon, and Thursday by 5 PM. During big storm cycles, there will be daily weather updates in the morning and the afternoon hours.

PS2: If you like this forecast page, please share it with your friends.

14 Day - ECMWF 500mb Height Anomaly Outlook — 14 Day – ECMWF 500mb Height Anomaly Outlook

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Mammoth Weather Forecast Data from Weather Bell

ECMWF Ensemble Jet Stream Gif

This is the Northern Pacific View of the ECMWF ENSEMBLE Run of the Jet Stream. The jet is starting to really eamp up as wwe move towards November. I see a possible big change in the pattern around mid month.

Temperature Forecast GIF

*Temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value