Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast
Tuesday, November 12th, 2024 @ 1:30 PM Good Tuesday Afternoon. After a dusting of snow from a quick-hitting cold front yesterday evening, the area will warm up a bit today into Wednesday under some brief ridging.
By Thursday afternoon, winds will be up, and cooling will begin as some clouds move through the area by the afternoon, with a 30% chance of seeing some snowflakes.
On Thursday night, the main cold front will move through the region, bringing an 80% chance of snow with periods of light to moderate snowfall on Mammoth Mountain. Snowfall Accumulations during the overnight hours look to be in the 2 to 4-inch range.
For Friday, Opening Day, expect snow showers with an additional 1-3 inches of possible snowfall along with some gusty winds.
1-3 Day Short-Term Forecast: Wednesday’s midday temperatures will be in the low to mid-40s. On Thursday, they will be in the mid to upper 30s. On Friday, temperatures will be in the mid-20s for great Snowmaking all day.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s tonight, with mid-20s for Thursday night and possibly upper teens on Friday night.
Winds will pick up later in the day on Wednesday out of the southwest at 15-25 MPH, with gusts to 35 or greater at times. Gusts will be over the top in the 40-60 MPH range at times into early Friday.
Mammoth Mountain Weather Discussion
Days 1-7 Forecast Discussion: There will be a brief period of ridging, and then a second low presure system will affect the area Thursday into early Saturday morning.
This one comes from the west and has more snowfall potential than the last one. Right now, the snowfall range is 3-7 inches of possible snowfall.
On Monday, the following system will be a weak inside slider, but the front will bring in a reinforcing shot of cooler air. It will not be as cold as the next system, but cold enough to keep the Snowmaking running.
Days 8-14 Outlook Discussion: According to the ECM Ensemble model, this period starts with a strong ridge in the area that persists until around day 14.
The GEFS agrees until day 12 when it starts bringing in the next low-pressure system from the west. Confidence in this outlook is low once we get to day 10.
The Longer Range: There are no signs of any moderate to heavy snowfall events anytime soon that can be trusted yet. If you’re watching the GFS model, throw it out. It’s all about the EPS ENS; all the others have been too wet. There are signs of a pattern change, but will that be ridging or an open door for heavy snowfall? Let’s hope it’s the latter. Stay tuned as this season’s Mammoth weather story unfolds.
Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman
PS: Moving forward, I will do my best to update this WX Discussion each Sunday by 5 PM, Tuesday by Noon, and Thursday by 5 PM. During big storm cycles, there will be daily weather updates in the morning and the afternoon hours.
PS2: If you like this forecast page, please share it with your friends.
Mammoth Weather Forecast Data from Weather Bell
ECMWF Ensemble Jet Stream Gif
This is the Northern Pacific View of the ECMWF ENSEMBLE Run of the Jet Stream. The jet is starting to really eamp up as wwe move towards November. I see a possible big change in the pattern around mid month.
Temperature Forecast GIF
*Temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value
The Wind Forecast Gif
10 Day QPF Forecast
Snowfall Forecast Gif
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