Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast
Thursday, November 14th, 2024 @ 3 PM: Good Thursday Afternoon. The next in a series of low-pressure systems is heading toward the area now. This one has a lot of cold air, as seen in the satellite photo below.
The trustworthy ECMWF shows .17 of moisture from the system with 2-3 inches of lighter-ratio snowfall tonight into late Friday afternoon. The NBM that the N.W.S. uses is much wetter, with 4-9 inches of snowfall.
I trust ECMWF’s drier solution for now. If Mammoth Mountain experiences some convective activity, the snowfall amounts could increase slightly.
By late Friday, this system will be towards the S.E. of Mammoth. That will set up an N to NW flow of cold air into the area that will last most of the weekend under pt cloudy skies.
1-3 Day Short-Term Forecast: On Friday, midday temperatures will be in the low to mid-twenties, with upper teens to low twenties on Saturday; by Sunday, temperatures will warm with a high of 35 degrees.
Overnight lows tonight, Friday night, and Saturday night will be in the upper teens to lower twenties.
On Friday at Main Lodge, the wind will be out of the SW, in the 10-15 MPH range with 20-25 MPH gusts. Up on Chair 3, wind gusts will be in the 30-40 MPH range. On Saturday, expect North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25-30 mph.
Mammoth Mountain Weather Discussion
Days 1-7 Forecast Discussion: Two low presure systems will affect Mammoth over the next week. This first system drops from out of the north but is much more westward than all the inside sliders we have seen.
Unfortunately, this one, like all the others this month, does not have a subtropical moisture tap, so the forecast only indicates a .36 QPF or 2-4 inches of snowfall.
The second low will be back on track to be a western slider that will bring a dusting to an inch or 2 of snow Monday into Tuesday.
While there won’t be much natural snow, this pattern brings in a ton of cold air, so snowmaking over the next 7 days should be on more than off.
A prominent ridge will be set up by Wednesday, and Mammoth will be cut off from the cold air for a few days. 
Days 8-14 Outlook Discussion: The period starts with the ridge moving eastward. On day 10, the pattern starts to change, with a trough pattern moving in from due west. Models still don’t have any decent moisture tap, but hopefully, that will change.
The GEFS is stronger than the ECM with this; however, with the change past day 10, confidence in the outcome is low. Both models have light to possibly low-end moderate amounts of snow, possibly from this pattern that would last into day 14.
The Longer Range: No signs of any moderate to heavy snowfall events that can be trusted and shared yet. It’s still very early in the season, and I don’t doubt that Mammoth Mountain will pick up several feet of snowfall over the next few weeks.
Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman
PS: Moving forward, I will do my best to update this WX Discussion each Sunday by 5 PM, Tuesday by Noon, and Thursday by 5 PM. During big storm cycles, there will be daily weather updates in the morning and afternoon.
Mammoth Weather Forecast Data from Weather Bell
ECMWF Ensemble Jet Stream Gif
This is the Northern Pacific View of the ECMWF ENSEMBLE Run of the Jet Stream. The jet is starting to really eamp up as wwe move towards November. I see a possible big change in the pattern around mid month.
Temperature Forecast GIF
*Temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value
The Wind Forecast Gif
10 Day QPF Forecast
Snowfall Forecast Gif
Most Recent Posts
