Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast
Friday, November 22nd, 2024 @ 9:36 AM – The NWS has issued a High Wind Warning for Tonight and a Winter Storm Warning for Mono County from 4 PM today to 10 PM on Saturday. A Winter Storm Watch is posted from Monday at 4 AM to Tuesday at 4 PM.
Today at the Main Lodge, expect sunny skies mixed with high clouds at times. By Friday evening, the first of two fronts aided by AR moisture will start to move through the Mammoth Mountain Area.
Most of the moderate to heavy snowfall this weekend will occur late tonight into early Saturday afternoon before tapering off to snow showers. There will be a bit of a break on Sunday, with snow showers still possible, before the next larger system moves in early Monday into late Tuesday evening.
Snowman’s Snowfall Forecast for Mammoth Mountain @ 9000 Feet
Saturday 6 AM: Snowfall 5-10 inches @ 10-1 (QPF 0.6- 1.00)
Sunday 6 AM: Snowfall 8-11 inches @ 10-1 (QPF 0.8 – 1.0)
Monday 6 AM: Snowfall 1-2 inches @ 10-1 (QPF 0.1- 0.2)
Tuesday 6 AM: Snowfall 8-11 inches @ 10-1 (QPF 0.8- 1.00)
Wednesday 6 AM: Snowfall 9-15 inches @ 12-1 (QPF .7 – 1.2)
Total Snowfall Forecast by Wednesday at Sunrise @ 31-49 inches
Also, note The high winds will most likely reduce these snowfall totals a bit. Data used is from the ECMWF ENS, the NBM & the GEFS.
5 Day Snowfall Forecast for Mammoth Mountain
1-3 Day Short-Term Forecast Details: Friday, midday temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s after overnight lows in the mid-30s. On Saturday, midday temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s from Main Lodge to the top.
The wind forecast for today at Main Lodge calls for very windy conditions, with a southwest wind of 25 to 30 mph and gusts as high as 45+ mph. Up on the Face Lift Express, by later this morning, you could see a wind at 45 to 50 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph.
For Saturday Day, Main Lodge will experience a 25 to 30 mph southwest wind, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Above the 9500-foot level, expect solid and damaging winds, with a southwest wind of 50 to 60 mph decreasing to 40 to 50 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 90 mph.
On Sunday, the weather will be breezy, with a southwest wind of 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Mammoth Mountain Weather Discussion
Days 1 – 7 Forecast Discussion: Two weather systems will affect Mammoth Mountain over the next five days. Both will come in from the west and have weakening AR taps, so there will be some decent moisture to work with.
The first system moves through tonight into early Saturday afternoon with moderate to heavy snowfall above the 8,000-8,500 foot level. The second stronger system’s timing of this post looks to be late Sunday night / early Monday into Tuesday evening.
Overall, the forecast for Wednesday morning, as you saw above, is for 2-4 feet. Confidence is strong for the first system and low on the details of storm 2.
Here is the first system on Saturday Morning.
The main low is still there early on Monday, sending the next band of moderate to heavy snow in the Mammoth Mountain region. Snow levels with the second system could make it halfway down the Sherwin Grade.
On Tuesday morning, the low still produces snow in the Mammoth area but is starting to weaken and move towards the SE.
By Wednesday morning, the big travel day for many people, the area should have clear skies and very cold temperatures. The exact location of the low at this point is a bit in question.
By day 7, the area will have higher heights building as the next ridge of high presure will be moving in.
7-Day Precipitation Anomaly It’s so nice to see this after a very dry two months. Yahoo is all I can say. By Thanksgiving, it looks good for base and top-to-bottom skiing via Cornice and the lower Drop Outs.
Days 8 – 14 Outlook Discussion:
Here is the ridge of high presure out on Day 9. Yikes, it’s a big one, and it looks to dominate the weather out to at least Day 14. However, the pattern can change fast this time of year, so beyond 10 days right now, there is little confidence in what happens.
> I will keep you updated, Snowman
Mammoth Weather Forecast Data from Weather Bell
ECMWF Ensemble Jet Stream Gif
This is the Northern Pacific View of the ECMWF ENSEMBLE Run of the Jet Stream. The jet is starting to really eamp up as wwe move towards November. I see a possible big change in the pattern around mid month.
Temperature Forecast GIF
*Temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value
The Wind Forecast Gif
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