Powder Forecast – Friday, November 29th, 2024
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours, as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Sat 11/30 = 0”
Sun 12/1 = 0”
Mon 12/2 = 0”
Tue 12/3 = 0”
Wed 12/4 = 0”
Thu 12/5= 0”
Fri 12/6 = 0”
Sat – Mon 12/7 – 12/9 = 0”
November Snowfall = 62”
November Forecast = 62”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Sat 11/30 through Tue 12/3 – No snowfall expected all days except for a chance for flurries Sunday.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
This afternoon, the current infrared satellite image (below) shows subtropical clouds moving into central and southern California associated with a pair of weak low-pressure systems off the SoCal coast. High pressure is positioned over the Great Basin, with a stronger area of high pressure off the PacNW coast, and that is providing fair/dry weather for Mammoth.
The weak low-pressure systems will slowly meander into Central California over the weekend and remain in place until early next week (image below). That will result in a lot of passing middle and high cloudiness (and flat light conditions) over the weekend and early next week, in addition to a chance for flurries on Sunday. It will also keep temperatures seasonable through Monday or Tuesday.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance favors dry weather continuing for the foreseeable future or longer. The best guess as to when there will be another powder day would be after mid-December and possibly not until just before Christmas (Dec 21-22nd), as all the guidance is dry through December 12th or longer.
The ECM model five-day 500-mb height anomaly chart for next week (image below) favors the high-pressure ridge to build more strongly over the state during the period as the weak low-pressure system slides southeastward. That means continued dry weather, but temperatures will get warmer and seasonably mild (low 50s Main, 30s up top).
The GEFS 11-15 day pattern (image below) shows more of the same, with a blocking ridge anchored along the West Coast and a trough in the middle of the US. Thus, the models favor dry weather for the first half of December.
The best hint of a change in the weather pattern may still lie in the tropics and the MJO. Models (GEFS and CFS below) still favor the signal to move into the western Pacific (phase 6) around or just after December 20th.
That period (Dec 21-22nd) may be the best guess for the next powder day. If the MJO traverses into phase 7 while maintaining a strong magnitude, that could be the next chance for a storm cycle. MJO composites favor above-normal precipitation in CA/Mammoth (image below) when the MJO is in that phase during this time of year. That, however, might not happen until the end of the year or early 2025. Fingers crossed. WG
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