Powder Forecast – Tuesday January 7th, 2025
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Wed 1/8 = 0”
Thu 1/9 = 0”
Fri 1/10 = 0”
Sat 1/11 = 0”
Sun 1/12 = 0”
Mon 1/13 = 0”
Tue 1/14 = 0”
Wed – Fri 1/15 – 1/17 = 0 – 1”
January Snowfall = 1”
January Forecast = 30 – 45”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Wed 1/8 through Saturday 1/11– No snowfall expected all days.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) this afternoon shows a weather system moving through northern Baja/Mexico that produced light snowfall overnight in Mammoth and strong winds today as high pressure builds into the Great Basin. The low will continue to shift southward and eastward through Thursday.
High pressure (image below) will build into the state Thursday and Friday resulting in dry and warmer weather. Freezing levels will get near 11K on Friday with temps likely into the low/mid 30s up top. Winds should remain breezy Thursday, and then light Friday.
The models (image below) are then forecasting the passage of another inside slider type weather system on Saturday and Sunday. No light snowfall is expected this time, but it will mean colder temperatures back to seasonable levels and also breezy to gusty northeast winds, primarily on Sunday.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance is still favoring dry weather to continue through mid-January or longer. There is still no exact sign of when this upcoming dry spell will come to an end, best guess right now is over the last 7 to 10 days of the month.
Another inside slider weather system will move through the Nevada on Monday (image below) and will likely cut-off from the jet stream on Wednesday off the SoCal coast (two images below). High pressure will likely build over the PacNW and Mammoth will be in between the two features. The end result will be breezy weather early in the week followed by lighter winds and seasonable temperatures through mid-week under continued dry conditions.
The cut-off low will probably become an open wave again by the end of the week while moving inland as another trough moves southward into NorCal/Nevada end of the week or early over the MLK Holiday weekend (image below). This pattern of a longwave trough in the West should remain in place into early the following week. There is a slight chance that a low could move southward far enough westward to produce some light snowfall, otherwise, it is a dry pattern.
The super fantasy range guidance is suggesting that snowfall could then return over the last part of January. The GEFS extended (image below) is showing above normal precipitation from January 21-28th and the ECM EPS is showing a wetter forecast as well (two images below).
That does line up with the latest MJO forecast (image below) that has the signal moving into wetter phase 3 on January 21st. However, the forecast for the eastward movement of the MJO into phase 3 is about 4 days slower versus what was forecast in the last post on Friday. Thus, it could end up being delayed/pushed back again, but it should eventually get there. WG
