Powder Forecast – Tuesday January 14th, 2025
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
NEXT UPDATE ON SATURDAY
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Wed 1/15 = 0”
Thu 1/16 = 0”
Fri 1/17 = 0”
Sat 1/18 = 0”
Sun 1/19 = 0
Mon 1/20 = 0
Tue 1/21 = 0
Wed – Fri 1/22 – 1/24 = 0”
January Snowfall = 1”
January Forecast = 20 – 35”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Wed 1/15 through Saturday 1/18– No snowfall expected all days.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) this afternoon shows high pressure dominating the eastern Pacific and West Coast and a weak cut-off low positioned well off the SoCal coast.
That low pressure system will move ashore on Thursday (image below) with maybe some sprinkles for SoCal and just passing clouds at Mammoth. Another upper level short-wave may move southward through the Great Basin of Nevada on Saturday and into Sunday, otherwise dry weather continues into the upcoming weekend.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance is still favoring dry weather to continue through the third week of January or longer. There is still no exact sign of when this current dry spell will come to an end, best guess right now is over the last 5 to 7 days of the month, although that keeps getting moved out further in time each post.
The pattern for next week is more of the same with a ridge positioned just off the West Coast and a deep trough in the mid-section of the country (image below). Temperatures should be seasonable and northeast winds mostly confined to the very top of the mountain.
The longer range guidance is not favoring any big storms but does hint that a weather system could slip through the ridge over the last week of the month. Th GFS ensemble (image below) and the ECM are not too bullish on a favorable jet stream pattern showing generally northwest flow.
However, a few ensembles are showing decent precipitation with the ECM mean (image below) not as wet as the GFS ensemble (two images below) and both would be enough for powder. This situation is similar to the scenario in the last post that doesn’t appear to be happening, so confidence in a favorable pattern change is low.
This dry pattern will come to an end eventually. The super long range ECM model is showing slightly above normal precipitation for February (image below) and the CFS is similar. The powder season is far from over. Next update on Saturday. WG
