Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast & Discusion
1-21-25 @ 11 AM WX Summary: Expect warming through Friday, with continued dry conditions. A pattern change is expected by the weekend with colder temperatures, breezy winds and possiblly light snow showers.
Expect clear skies if you’re out on the hill today. Temperatures at the first chair will be in the upper 20s, and midday temperatures will be in the mid-40s from Main Lodge down to Canyon Lodge. Over the Mid and Upper Mountain, midday temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Winds around Main Lodge will be east at 5 to 10 mph. Up top winds today are expected to be E to NW at 10-25 MPH.
On Wednesday skies will be clear, temperatures at the first chair will be in the upper 20s, and midday temperatures will be in the low 40s from Main Lodge down to Canyon Lodge. Over the Mid and Upper Mountain, midday temperatures will be in the mid 30s.
Winds around Main Lodge will be north at 5 to 10 mph. Up top winds are expected to be northeast at 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30-40 mph.
By Thursday skies will be clear, temperatures at the first chair will be in the upper 20s, and midday temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s from Main Lodge down to Canyon Lodge. Over the Mid and Upper Mountain, midday temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Winds around Main Lodge will be north at 5 to 10 mph. Up top winds are expected to be north at 5 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon.
WX Discusion: A strong ridge of high pressure anchored just off the Pacific NW this week will bring more clear skies. NE winds will increase a bit on Wednesday and then back off again on Thursday and Friday.
By Saturday, a strong door low will affect Mammoth Mountain with much cooler weather, windy conditions, and some light snowfall at times.
The low sinks south by Monday, but the cold air and a few snow showers at times will still be around up on Mammoth Mountain.
By Day 8 the outlook still has a northern flow over the area, but tempratures will be on the rise and the snowfall will have exited the area.
By day 10, the ridge will be making itself known again, which is not a good sign for snowfall… more updates soon.
Forever Hopefull for a series of Powder Storms, Steve Taylor – the Mammoth Snowman
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Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast & Discusion
Thursday, January 16th, 2025 @ 9:30 AM
WX Summary: A break in the NE wind flow will affect the area Thursday through at least early Sunday. Under short-wave ridging, the skies will be sunny and warmer, with no rain or snow in the forecast.
By late Sunday, we have been expecting the next inside slider to bring more cold air and the next upslope wind flow event into Tuesday. Models this morning have the slider much more to our east with all the cold air missing the Eastern Sierra. Confidence is low in the forecast beyond Sunday.
If you’re out on the hill on Thursday and Friday, the skies will be clear. Temperatures at the first chair will be in the lower 20s, and midday temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s from Main Lodge down to Canyon Lodge. Over the Mid and Upper Mountain, mid-day temperatures will be in the mid-30s.
The Weekend Outlook calls for clear skies, light to calm winds, and mid-day temperatures into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Sunday should be a bit cooler, with winds slowly picking up during the afternoon. Looks like a great Martin Luther King weekend with limited crowds due to the Ikon Base Pass blackouts.
As the ECMWF Ensemble model below shows, high pressure will be in control with blue skies overhead through next weekend, so plan accordingly.
Mountain Winds: Winds are forecasted to pick up again for a short time on Monday. All data is backing off strong NE winds at this point in time for next Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures: The upper air temperature anomaly shows warming, which is expected midweek through Saturday. The cold air we saw for early next week on Wednesday is now staying well east of the Eastern Sierra.
Long-Range Fantasy Outlook & Discussion: The 7-10-day forecast remains dry. Beyond day 10, a deeper inside slider wants to retrograde much more westward than next week’s slider.
That would allow for a lot of cold air and some snow showers to develop for the last week of January.
Models have been light on snowfall; however, the ECMWF is not showing more QPF in the Outlook, so hopefully, that model is on to something.
Beyond that, it will be time for February. The long-range ensembles we use to predict weather trends show the area getting snowfall again. Nothing major, but a close-to-average February would be sweet, with some decent snowfall refreshing the snowpack again.
The reality is that the weather pattern needs to change dramatically soon, or this will be a well below-average snowfall season.
Hopefully, in the next week or two, we will start to see that on the longer-range model trends heading towards wet across the entire state.
Forever Hopefull for a series of Powder Storms, Steve Taylor – the Mammoth Snowman
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