Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast & Discusion
Friday, January 24, 2025, @ 6 AM – “Winter Storm Watch for the Owens Valley Saturday PM into Sunday PM”
WX Summary: One last day of clear blue skies before the weather significantly changes tonight into early Monday.
Over the next 24 hours, an inside slider will turn hybrid and move west of the Sierra by Saturday. The low’s position looks to be just off the west coast, and that would be enough to pick up some moisture.
The forecasted snowfall amounts over the weekend on the ECMWF and the NBM are both in the 5-10 inch range above the 9000-foot level. Snow levels will be very low, with snow possible all the way down to Coso Junction.
Snowfall along 395 is forecasted to be 2-5 inches from Lone Pine to Bishop. I would avoid 395 on Sunday, or you’ll be looking at a very long drive south.
If you’re out on the hill today, expect clear skies to start the day, increasing winds this morning, and increasing clouds during the afternoon.
Temperatures at the first chair will be in the lower 30s, and midday temperatures will be in the lower to mid-40s from Main Lodge down to Canyon Lodge. Over the Mid and Upper Mountain, midday temperatures will be in the mid-30s.
Winds at the 9000-foot level will be out of the Southwest around 10 mph, with gusts to 20-25+ mph. Up top winds are expected Southwest 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30-40 mph.
On Saturday, expect cloudy skies with an 80% chance of light to moderate snowfall. Accumulations appear in the 1-3 inch range during the day, with 3-5 inches possible Saturday night. Snow ratios will be high as this is a cold system.
Saturday at the first chair will be in the upper teens, and midday temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s from Main Lodge down to Canyon Lodge. Over the Mid and Upper Mountain, midday temperatures will be in the upper teens to lower 20s.
Winds at the 9000-foot level will be out of the Southwest at 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20-25 mph. Up top winds are expected out of the Southwest at 30 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph.
QPF Forecasts
Snowfall Forecasts
Mountain Wind Gusts GIF 
Temperature Anomalies GIF
Longer Range Weather Discussion:
By next Tuesday, the area will start to see some ridging built back into the area. That will result in a slow warm-up and more clear skies. Out on days 9 and 10 would be the next chance for more light to moderate snowfall.
Forever Hopefull for a series of Powder Storms, Steve Taylor – the Mammoth Snowman
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Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast & Discusion
Thursday, January 16th, 2025 @ 9:30 AM
WX Summary: A break in the NE wind flow will affect the area Thursday through at least early Sunday. Under short-wave ridging, the skies will be sunny and warmer, with no rain or snow in the forecast.
By late Sunday, we have been expecting the next inside slider to bring more cold air and the next upslope wind flow event into Tuesday. Models this morning have the slider much more to our east with all the cold air missing the Eastern Sierra. Confidence is low in the forecast beyond Sunday.
If you’re out on the hill on Thursday and Friday, the skies will be clear. Temperatures at the first chair will be in the lower 20s, and midday temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s from Main Lodge down to Canyon Lodge. Over the Mid and Upper Mountain, mid-day temperatures will be in the mid-30s.
The Weekend Outlook calls for clear skies, light to calm winds, and mid-day temperatures into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Sunday should be a bit cooler, with winds slowly picking up during the afternoon. Looks like a great Martin Luther King weekend with limited crowds due to the Ikon Base Pass blackouts.
As the ECMWF Ensemble model below shows, high pressure will be in control with blue skies overhead through next weekend, so plan accordingly.
Mountain Winds: Winds are forecasted to pick up again for a short time on Monday. All data is backing off strong NE winds at this point in time for next Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures: The upper air temperature anomaly shows warming, which is expected midweek through Saturday. The cold air we saw for early next week on Wednesday is now staying well east of the Eastern Sierra.
Long-Range Fantasy Outlook & Discussion: The 7-10-day forecast remains dry. Beyond day 10, a deeper inside slider wants to retrograde much more westward than next week’s slider.
That would allow for a lot of cold air and some snow showers to develop for the last week of January.
Models have been light on snowfall; however, the ECMWF is not showing more QPF in the Outlook, so hopefully, that model is on to something.
Beyond that, it will be time for February. The long-range ensembles we use to predict weather trends show the area getting snowfall again. Nothing major, but a close-to-average February would be sweet, with some decent snowfall refreshing the snowpack again.
The reality is that the weather pattern needs to change dramatically soon, or this will be a well below-average snowfall season.
Hopefully, in the next week or two, we will start to see that on the longer-range model trends heading towards wet across the entire state.
Forever Hopefull for a series of Powder Storms, Steve Taylor – the Mammoth Snowman
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