Powder Forecast – Friday February 21st, 2025
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Sat 2/22 = 0”
Sun 2/23 = 0”
Mon 2/24 = 0”
Tue 2/25 = 0”
Wed 2/26 = 0”
Thu 2/27 = 0”
Fri 2/28 = 0 – 1”
Sat – Mon 3/1 – 3/3 = 1 – 3”
February Snowfall = 74”
February Forecast = 74” – 75”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Sat 2/22 through Tue 2/25– No snowfall expected all days.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) today shows high pressure has built over the state resulting in fair and warmer weather with temperatures this afternoon into the mid 40s at Main.
The high-pressure ridge will continue to build over the weekend for continued fair weather and slightly warmer temperatures. Spring conditions look likely on the Ch. 25/9 side of the mountain.
A weather system will move into the PacNW on Monday under strong zonal jet stream flow. It will be too far northward for any snowfall in Mammoth with just passing clouds and an increase in westerly winds that should mean wind buff conditions up top. High pressure rebuilds on Tuesday.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance is saying that a mostly dry weather pattern will probably continue through next week with just a chance for light snow showers around Thu/Fri before the pattern slowly becomes more favorable over the first couples of weeks of March. How favorable is yet to be determined.
The ECM model moves a cut-off low toward the CA around Friday next week and then into SoCal over the weekend. The GFS ensemble (image below) has it as a weak open wave that continues to weaken as it moves through CA. None of the models are predicting meaningful precipitation with GFS ensemble (two images below) showing about 0.05” or enough for dust on crust.
The GFS ensemble then moves a slightly stronger short-wave through central and northern CA on Sunday and the next Monday (image below) for a chance for light snowfall. The ECM deterministic run this morning (two images below) portrayed a deeper cut-off upper low right of the Central CA coast.
The ECM ensemble also shows a deeper trough and is more bullish about enough snowfall for low-end powder conditions with around 0.50” (image below) liquid or 4-5” snowfall. The GFS ensemble has about tenth liquid or maybe an inch/two snow. The forecast takes a middle ground with only light amounts expected.
The longer-range guidance is then favoring more troughs to moves through CA during the middle of the week (image below) and again over the next weekend (two images below). The ECM ensemble is slightly different, but has mostly the same idea, and is forecasting around 0.75” for the 3-day period (three images below) that should be enough for powder conditions at some point.
The fantasy range guidance continues to show a more favorable pattern for storminess during the second week of the month with the longwave trough getting established along the West Coast. The GFS extended (image below) is showing above normal precipitation for Mammoth for that second week and keeps it going through the 3rd week of the month. The latest ECM EPS is showing a similar scenario overall, it is just not quite as bullish as the GFS with average/slightly above normal precipitation forecast (two images below). Regardless, the guidance is trending wetter for the first part of March, meaning powder days could return in less than two weeks. WG
