Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast & Discussion
3-1-2025 @ 6:30 AM – WX Summary – One more day of the false spring weather the area has been experiencing over the last week. It’s amazing that the plants are budding down in Bishop and have green leaves popping out allready. I can’t remember the last time I saw a conversion over to spring this early in Mammoth and in Bishop.
The good news is that after today, the weather pattern looks to be more stormy than not during this new month of March. The fun starts during the day on Sunday with the first in a series of systems that look to bring back winter over the next couple of weeks.
Yahoo, we need more snowpack and powder before we head into the real spring period. 🙂
If you’re heading to the mountain today, expect thick high clouds at times.
- Early Morning Temps: Upper 20s to lower 30’s at first chair.
- Midday Temps: 50-55 degrees from Main Lodge (8,900′) down to Canyon Lodge, with the mid-40s over the mid and upper mountain (9,500’–11,053′)
- Winds: NW turning SW at 5-10 MPH at the 9000 foot level with with gusts to 20-30 MPH at times over the mid and upper mountain areas.
If you’re heading to the mountain on Sunday, expect cloudy skies with breezy condtions and moderate to heavy snow developing during the later morning to early afternoon hours. Snowfall amounts during the day look to be in the 3-6 inch range.
- Early Morning Temps: Upper 20s to Lower 30s at first chair.
- Midday Temps: Lower 30s from Main Lodge (8,900′) down to Canyon Lodge, with the mid-20s over the mid and upper mountain (9,500’–11,053′)
- Winds: SW wind at 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Mid to upper mountain SW at 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40-55 mph.
Steve Taylor – the Snowman.
Powder Forecast – Friday February 28th, 2025
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Sat 3/1 = 0”
Sun 3/2 = 0 – 1”
Mon 3/3 = 4 – 6” (H20 = 0.35” – 0.65”)**2
Tue 3/4 = 0 – 1”
Wed 3/5 = 1 – 2”
Thu 3/6 = 4 – 6”
Fri 3/7 = 0”
Sat – Mon 3/8 – 3/10 = 6 – 15”
February Snowfall = 74”
February Forecast = 74”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Sat 3/1 – Dry during the day and most of the night, with light snowfall expected to increase around dawn. Accumulations 0 – 1”.
Sun 3/2 – Light to moderate snowfall during the morning, tapering to snow showers during the afternoon and overnight. Accumulations 4 – 6” by Monday AM at Main, 6”+ up top.
Mon 3/3 – Snow showers end during the morning, with just a chance for flurries the rest of the day. Accumulations 0 – 1”.
Tue 3/4 – Dry during the day and most of the night, with light snowfall expected to increase late at night. Accumulations 1 – 2” by Wednesday AM.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) shows a weak cut-off low-pressure system positioned off the SoCal coast and some high clouds spilling into the southern half of the CA. That low-pressure system will move into northern Baja on Saturday and too far southward for shower activity.
A trailing weather system (image above—well off the coast) will quickly move into NorCal by early Sunday (image below), and the cold front will move into Mammoth during the morning hours. Light to moderate snowfall should start around dawn and continue until about midday (riders of the storm) before changing to snow showers for the rest of the day and night. Snow showers should end on Monday morning with dry weather and expected through Tuesday.
The system’s model QPF varies slightly, with the ECM model (image below) forecasting the driest at around a third of an inch and the other models (images below) forecasting around 0.50” to 0.65” liquid. The forecast follows a blend of the guidance and favors about half an inch of liquid or 4-6” of snowfall, enough for powder conditions.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance still says that the weather pattern will slowly become more favorable over the first couple of weeks of March and into mid-month. How favorable is still undetermined, but the guidance is starting to favor better chances for more significant snowfall during the second week of March and heading into mid-month.
The models move another trough into CA around mid-week and struggle to determine its strength, moisture tap, and speed. The latest ECM run (image below) favors a stretched-out trough that deepens after landfall. That solution matches well with the GFS ensemble, but the ECM ensemble holds the trough together upon landfall for a better chance for larger amounts, as reflected in the QPF (image below), which has almost an inch of liquid. The current forecast takes a middle ground and favors about 4-6” and enough for powder conditions.
The longer-range guidance suggests a better chance for significant snowfall in the 10-14-day period. The GFS ensemble (image below) and the ECM EPS develop a deep trough off the CA and West Coast on Sunday and/or Monday that week. Both show a decently strong southwest jet stream into the Sierra for good orographic lift and spill-over into the eastern side.
The GFS ensemble keeps the longwave trough across the middle and western US through the following week (image below), keeping CA in mostly northwest jet stream flow. That would allow weak/moderate systems to drop into CA from the Gulf of Alaska. The ECM ensemble has the trough farther westward during the middle/latter part of that week, which would allow any storms moving into CA to have a better over-water trajectory before landfall and potentially larger precipitation amounts.
That is illustrated in the QPF anomaly charts for that week, with the ECM EPS (image below) showing above-normal precipitation while the GFS ensemble (two images below) is showing slightly above. The ECM EPS is suggesting two or more inches of liquid (three images below) that could add up to possibly two feet or more during the week. Hopefully, the EPS pattern will pan out.
For the second half of March, the fantasy range solutions favor a long-wave trough of unknown strength/depth to remain mostly along the West Coast until possibly the end of the month. The GFS and CFS models are more bullish on this solution versus the ECM, with the last monthly forecast by the CFS model (image below) showing slightly above normal precipitation next month for Mammoth. March average is around 60”, which suggests a 70-80” month. I’ll take it. WG
Author Bio: Steve Taylor, The Mammoth Snowman. Over the last 40+ years, Steve has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions.
Dr. George, Don Marcelin, Howard Sheckter, and Ted Schlaepfer were his weather mentors at that time. Steve used to hang out with Howard in the Weather War room in the early ’90s, getting first-hand knowledge of Mammoth Weather from the (The Dweeb) himself.
Steve has spent countless hours reading, studying, and watching weather discussions from the NWS and multiple Private Weather Forecasters. He is a long-time member of WeatherBell, Weather West, and AccuWeather Pro. Disclaimer: Steve is a hobbyist forecaster with over 35 years of experience reporting recreational weather and travel reports for the Mammoth Lakes area.
Author Bio: Ted Schlaepfer is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist (CCM) with over 30 years of experience in the weather industry. A lifelong weather enthusiast, Ted’s passion for snow and rain led him to start skiing at the age of five and eventually become a meteorologist.
Since the 2008/09 winter season, Ted has been providing his popular Mammoth Mountain Powder Forecast Posts for Mammoth Snowman. His forecasts have helped countless skiers enjoy powder days at Mammoth Mountain.
Ted’s connection with Mammoth Mountain began in 1979 when he and his family first discovered the area. They have been regular visitors since the late 1980s and own property there.
You can catch Ted’s fresh Powder Forecast Posts every Tuesday and Friday around 5 PM from November through April.
