Powder Forecast – Friday April 4th, 2025
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Sat 4/5 = 0”
Sun 4/6 = 0”
Mon 4/7 = 0”
Tue 4/8 = 0”
Wed 4/9 = 0”
Thu 4/10 = 0”
Fri 4/11 = 0”
Sat – Mon 4/12 – 4/14 = 0 – 3”
April Snowfall = 8”
April Forecast = 10 – 20”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Sat 4/5 through Tue 4/8– No snowfall expected all days.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) this morning shows high pressure building into the state and the low-pressure system that produce the snowfall a couple days ago now positioned in Arizona. A weather system off the coast will ride northward over the high-pressure ridge.
Fair and warmer weather is expected this weekend before a trough of low pressure will move into the PacNW late Sunday and into Monday (image below). It will be too far northward for any snowfall in Mammoth with just passing clouds and an increase in westerly winds Monday. High pressure then rebuilds through the middle of next week for continued fair/dry weather and spring conditions.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance is mostly dry through mid-month or longer with just a chance for light snowfall next weekend. Typical spring weather is still favored for the second half of April.
High pressure should generally hold through the end of next week before the guidance is favoring a longwave trough to return to the West Coast. The GFS ensemble (image below) is deeper with the trough and farther southward with the jet stream (purple arrow) versus the ECM EPS (two images below) that is farther northward and generally weaker.
If the GFS is right, there could be a couple/few inches of snowfall next weekend that could be enough for low-end powder. If the ECM EPS is correct, then just wind and light snow showers that would be dust on crust. High pressure should then rebuild over the following week.
Overall, the GFS Ensemble (image below) is forecasting about a third of an inch liquid for the 14-day period, almost all of it with the trough next weekend. The ECM EPS (two images below) is showing less and likely not enough at any one time for powder conditions. We’ll see what happens, next update on Tuesday. WG
