Powder Forecast –Tuesday April 8th, 2025
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Wed 4/9 = 0”
Thu 4/10 = 0”
Fri 4/11 = 0”
Sat 4/12 = 0”
Sun 4/13 = 0”
Mon 4/14 = 0”
Tue 4/15 = 0”
Wed – Fri 4/16 – 4/18 = 0 – 2”
April Snowfall = 17”
April Forecast = 20 – 25”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Sat 4/5 through Tue 4/7– No snowfall expected all days.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) this afternoon a weather system moving into the PacNW and the tail end of the front brushing southern Oregon. High pressure off the coast will build into the state on Wednesday resulting in fair and warmer weather.
High pressure will peak over Mammoth and the eastern Sierra on Thursday (image below) and Friday for continued fair and warm weather with spring conditions across the mountain.
The GFS ensemble then moves a splitting weak short-wave trough through CA on Saturday (image below) and the ECM model is weaker and farther northward (two image below). Either way, the end result will be cooler weather and just an increase in winds as both model suites don’t produce any precipitation with its passage.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance is generally dry through the Canyon/Eagle closing with just a chance for light snowfall early next week. It looks like no more powder days this season on Ch. 22 unless you hike. Typical spring weather is still favored for the last part of April, although there is always a chance for a surprise storm.
High pressure should briefly build into the area Sunday and Monday before there is likely another weak trough passage around Tuesday next week. The GFS ensemble (image below) is the deepest with the trough while the ECM (two images below) and the ECM EPS are much weaker or even have weak high pressure over the state.
The GFS ensemble suggest that there could be an inch or two of snowfall with QPF a bit over a tenth of an inch liquid with only a few ECM ensembles showing anything and the mean only about 0.05” (two images below). Thus, it is unlikely to result in any meaningful snowfall with probably a better chance for continued dry weather.
Dry weather is what is expected for the rest of next week and through the Canyon/Eagle closing with the GFS ensemble mean showing a flat ridge of high pressure (image below) over the state for the period. Spring conditions would likely return or continue next week and through the weekend.
The rest of April is favored to see typical spring weather. While most days will be sunny and warm/mild, typical spring weather also means a chance for a surprise storm. The super long range GFS model (image below) is showing around an inch of liquid for the end of the month/early May and the ECM EPS 45-day forecast (two images below) has around 2” liquid. So you never know, just don’t know when yet. WG
