Powder Forecast – Friday, January 2nd, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Sat 1/3 = 3 – 4” (H20 = 0.40” – 0.50”) **4
Sun 1/4 = 18 – 22” (H20 = 1.75” – 2.25”) **4
Mon 1/5 = 25 – 30″ (H20 = 2.50″ – 3.00″) **3
Tue 1/6 = 1 – 2” (H20 = 0.10” – 0.20”) **3
Wed 1/7 = 0 – 1″
Thu 1/8 = 2 – 5”
Fri 1/9 = 0 – 1″
Sat – Mon 1/10 – 1/12 = 0″
January Snowfall = 9”
January Forecast = 75 – 90″
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Sat 1/3 – Snow, heavy at times during the morning, continues at times overnight, accumulations 18 – 22″ at Main by Sunday AM, 24″ up Top.
Sun 1/4 – Heavy snowfall develops during the late morning and continues into the evening, tapering in intensity overnight. Accumulations: 25–30″ at Main by Monday AM, 36″ up Top.
Mon 1/5 – Lingering snow showers during the morning, then a chance for snow showers at times through Monday night, accumulations 1 – 2″ at Main by Tuesday AM, 2″ + up Top.
Tue 1/6 – Slight chance for flurries or light snow showers, otherwise dry until late Tuesday night when snow may redevelop. Little or no accumulation expected.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) shows a system moving into Ca, while the parent upper-level low-pressure system remains well offshore. That front will move into the Sierra and Mammoth overnight and tomorrow for a round of moderate to heavy snowfall that should last all day and through Saturday night.
The heaviest snowfall is expected during the morning, with winds increasing through the afternoon before decreasing a bit tomorrow night. There could be close to a foot by the time any lifts open for those riders of the storm. Model QPF for this first round varies from about 1.5″ + from the ECM model (image below) to around 2″ + from the GFS (two images below). The Forecast leans toward the GFS due to slower movement and longer-duration snowfall, with almost two feet at Main and over two feet at the Top.
The models move the next short-wave through the base of the trough and into the Sierra on Sunday (image below) for another round of heavy snowfall. Snowfall should pick up during the day and become heavy during the afternoon/evening.
The QPF model for the second storm is larger, with the ECM model showing over 2″ of liquid (image below) and the GFS even more at around 3″ (two images below). That should be good for another two feet of snowfall at Main and close to three feet up Top. Snow levels for the storms will be around 6500 feet on Saturday, then down to 5500 feet on Sunday. Sunday’s snowfall may be a tad drier, but it is Sierra cement-base type snowfall. Overall, the models suggest around 4 feet of accumulation at Main through Monday (see three images below).
Models move the upper low southward along the coast on Monday (image below) and form a cut-off low that will eventually move into Baja on Tuesday. That will kill the moist southwest flow into the Sierra, and snowfall should end Monday with just flurries or light snow showers possible through Tuesday, but no meaningful accumulation.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance now indicates that a dry period will commence next weekend and likely continue through the middle of January or longer. It still looks like the last half of January will be when the storms could return to CA, with the last week of the month having the best chance for bigger storms.
The guidance says one last upper-level trough will move southward around the middle part of the week eek, with the latest ECM showing a short-wave in the northwest flow (image below). That is typically moisture-starved, but colder patterns, and the models reflect that fact with only minor liquid forecast for Mammoth (two images below). The GFS is a tad wetter, but it looks like only a few inches of fluffy powder is favored for the passing of this system.
The ECM model develops a high-pressure ridge over CA the following weekend (image below) and maintains it through most of the following week (two images below), with the ECM showing a strong ridge.—That means sunny weather and seasonably mild temperatures.
The guidance does try to retrograde a trough across the interior West back into CA by the following weekend. That could allow for a colder type of storm from the North, bringing nice, cold, dry powder. The ECM model is not too bullish on that scenario, with below-normal precipitation that week (image below). The GFS is more favorable, with slightly above-average precipitation that week (two images below).
Both models favor precipitation returning by the end of the month, with the ECM showing mostly average precipitation (image below) and the GFS again wetter and slightly above normal (two images below). Overall, January looks quite good for snowfall, with many powder days and/or storm-riding day chances. WG
