Powder Forecast – Tuesday, January 6th, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Wed 1/7 = 0”
Thu 1/8 = 1 – 2” (H20 = 0.10” – 0.15”) **3
Fri 1/9 = 0”
Sat 1/10 = 0”
Sun 1/11 = 0”
Mon 1/12 = 0”
Tue 1/13 = 0”
Wed – Fri 1/14 – 1/16 = 0”
January Snowfall = 40”
January Forecast = 65 – 80”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Wed 1/7 – Dry during the day and evening, then light snowfall develops late overnight, accumulations 1 – 2” at Main by Thursday AM, 2”+ up Top.
Thu 1/8 – Chance for snow showers during the morning, then dry. No accumulation expected.
Fri 1/10 and Sat 1/11– No snowfall expected both days.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) shows the remnant low-pressure system from the weekend storm now drifting southward off the SoCal coast, while a weak high pressure system is building into the state. The next weather system is now entering the PacNW.
That storm system will move through Mammoth and the Sierra early Thursday (image below) and will produce a brief period of snowfall during the early morning hours. It is a colder, drier type of system dropping into CA in the northwest jet stream flow, which is typically moisture-starved.
That is reflected in the model QPF: the ECM model (image below) shows less than a tenth of liquid, and the GFS (two images below) shows about a tenth. Thus, expect only an inch or two of snowfall and enough to refresh the mountain, but likely not enough for powder conditions. High pressure builds for the rest of the week with some breezy north winds Thursday/Friday.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance shows a prolonged dry period for at least a week and probably closer to two weeks. There is no reliable timeframe for when the dry period will end; the best guess right now is the last week of the month.
The models are in agreement on a strong ridge of high pressure building into the state next week (image below), bringing dry, seasonably mild temperatures. The guidance mostly keeps the ridge in place through the 11-15 day period (two images below) for continued dry weather, with some signs that the ridge/trough pattern will begin to retrograde toward the very end of the period, allowing storms to move into the state from the north.
The dry pattern is evident in the model QPF with both the ECM and GFS (images below) showing below normal precipitation to continue through the end of the period. The ECM EPS output (three images below) shows only about a quarter inch of liquid, mostly falling at the end of the period. Thus, it looks dry until maybe Jan 20-21st, but I think deeper snowfall is not favored until around the 24th or later.
Taking a quick look at tropics, after a period of low amplitude meandering inside the RMM index unit circle, the MJO (image below) looks to strengthen next week with a gain in amplitude in phase 6/7 before progressing eastward into phase 8 by the end of the month or early February.
If the SPV (image below) restrengthens into a strong circulation during that time period (around 40 m/s or stronger), then there could be a favorable response, similar to what occurred during December. A weak (<5 m/s) would lead to an unfavorable disruption (cold for the East Coast), and a neutral would not produce a big pattern. Right now, the ensemble mean (dark blue line) indicates the SPV will not be strong enough, as it barely reaches strong levels.
The fantasy range guidance favors precipitation returning over the latter part of the month and continuing into early February. Both the ECM and GFS show slightly above-normal precipitation for that period, with the GFS slightly wetter overall. If the SPV ends up solidly strong, then I believe it. WG
