Powder Forecast – Friday January 9th, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Sat 1/10 = 0”
Sun 1/11 = 0”
Mon 1/12 = 0”
Tue 1/13 = 0”
Wed 1/14 = 0”
Thu 1/15 = 0”
Fri 1/16 = 0”
Sat – Mon 1/17 – 1/19 = 0”
January Snowfall = 43”
January Forecast = 60 – 75”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Sat 1/10 through Tue 1/13– No snowfall expected all days.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) this afternoon shows high pressure is building into California with the weather system well off the coast expected to move northward over the ridge and into British Columbia.
High pressure will continue to build through the weekend (image below) for fair, dry weather and warmer temperatures with little change through early next week.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance shows a prolonged dry period for the next ten days or longer. Any hints of a chance in the pattern in a favorable direction might not be until the last week of the month or even last few days of the month. This is not unusual for a La Nina winter when long dry periods are normal.
High pressure will continue to strengthen through the middle of next week (image below) with the guidance suggesting it will hold firm into the following weekend (two images below). Temperatures by the middle of next week could get quite mild and into the low/middle 50s at Main/Canyon and there could even be a January melt on the lowest part of the mountain.
Model QPF for the next ten days is pretty much completely dry per both the ECM EPS (image below) and the GFS ensemble (two images below). Enjoy the groomers under the beautiful California sunshine until the snowfall returns.
Both the GFS ensemble (image below) and the ECM EPS move a short-wave trough southward into CA around the 21st (image below) and keep a longwave trough just east of CA for the rest of the 15 day period.
The GFS ensemble (image below) is showing about half an inch liquid (image below) for the back end of the period, and the ECM EPS (two images below) is showing a bit more and about 0.75”. Thus, there is potential for at least a low-end powder day around that time frame.
For the rest of January, the GFS extended is wetter (image below) at about 3” liquid versus the ECM model that just over 1.5”.
That could be related to the MJO forecast from the GEFS (image below) that is slower with the eastward movement through phase 7 along with greater amplitude. The latest forecast of the SPV now favors it to get strong enough over the last part of the month, that combined with the MJO in phase 7, could lead to a favorable outcome, per the graphic below (option h) discussed in previous posts. Let’s hope so. WG
