Powder Forecast – Tuesday January 13th, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Wed 1/14 = 0”
Thu 1/15 = 0”
Fri 1/16 = 0”
Sat 1/17 = 0”
Sun 1/18 = 0”
Mon 1/19 = 0”
Tue 1/20 = 0”
Wed – Fri 1/21 – 1/23 = 0 – 3”
January Snowfall = 43”
January Forecast = 55 – 70”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Wed 1/14 through Sat 1/17– No snowfall expected all days.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) shows high pressure over California, resulting in fair, dry, and seasonably mild temperatures. Main Lodge is currently in the upper 40s, with Eagle in the low 50s.
High pressure will continue to hold through the week (image below) for continued fair, dry weather and slightly warmer temperatures into Thursday before slightly cooler weather returns for the end of the week and into the weekend, but still mild for January.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance shows the prolonged dry spell lasting into the middle part of next week or longer. Any change in the pattern toward a favorable direction might not be until the last few days of the month or even early February.
The high pressure (image below) will remain strong across the West Coast into early next week, although it should scoot a bit farther northward from its current position. That just means slightly colder temperatures under continued fair skies.
Changes in the weather pattern are possible toward the end of next week and into the next weekend. The latest ECM run moves a deep upper-level trough into CA/Nevada around Friday or Saturday (image below), which would mean some snowfall and colder temperatures. The model is not showing much, maybe half an inch of liquid (two images below), or about six inches of snowfall.
That deep trough is not well supported by the ECM EPS (image below), which has the longwave trough farther east and favors moisture-starved, inside-slider-type storms. The GFS ensemble (two images below) is a bit farther westward with the longwave trough, but not far enough for big-time storms.
That is reflected in the QPF from the models: the GFS ensemble (image below) is slightly wetter than the ECM EPS (two images below) for the back end of the period. Thus, there is a chance for at least a low-end powder day, and it would be the dry type of snowfall if one of the wetter solutions verifies.
The models then favor a flat ridge to redevelop near the end of the month (image below) for more dry weather. The ECM model does move that ridge eastward and allows some storms to move into central/northern CA at the end of the month/early February, with slightly above-normal precipitation (two images below). That model has normal precipitation for the next week (three images below).
Typical mid-winter dry spells last two to three weeks; the last snowfall was on the 8th, and 2-3 weeks later is around the 24th to 29th.
Let’s hope so. WG
