Powder Forecast – Friday, January 16th, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Sat 1/17 = 0”
Sun 1/18 = 0”
Mon 1/19 = 0”
Tue 1/20 = 0”
Wed 1/21 = 0”
Thu 1/22 = 0”
Fri 1/23 = 0 – 1”
Sat – Mon 1/24 – 1/26 = 0 – 2”
January Snowfall = 43”
January Forecast = 55 – 70”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Sat 1/17 through Tue 1/20– No snowfall expected all days.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) this afternoon shows strong high pressure over California and the West Coast, resulting in fair, dry, and seasonably mild temperatures. Main Lodge is currently in the mid-40s, with Eagle around 50F.
High pressure will continue to hold through early next week (image below), bringing fair, dry weather and above-normal temperatures for mid-January. Temperatures should be little changed with 30s up top and mostly 40s elsewhere.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance shows the prolonged dry spell lasting until the last part of the month before turning wetter, hopefully. The pattern may then become more favorable during the first part of February.
The models have now mostly come into agreement that it will be an inside slider-type weather system for the end of next week (image below). That means the storm will have low moisture and poor orographic lift, and usually results in little or light snowfall. ECM EPS (image below) is showing about a tenth of an inch for the end of next week and the following weekend.
High pressure will probably rebuild for at least a few days thereafter before more favorable changes are possible by the middle part of next week. The latest run of the ECM model moves a short-wave trough into the state from the southwest (image below), which is the wet direction for storms. It is not a strong storm, but the model is showing about 1.5” of liquid (two images below) and more than enough for powder conditions. The only caveat would be snow levels, as they could remain high.
This solution of weather systems moving into the state from the southwest is well supported by the ECM EPS, which shows a trough in the Gulf of Alaska and broad zonal flow along the West Coast for the last part of the month (image below). The GFS ensemble is not as bullish on the zonal flow and keeps a flat ridge over CA and most of the West Coast.
That is evident in the QPF from the two models with the ECM EPS (image below), which is much wetter at around 2.5” liquid, versus the GFS ensemble at around 0.35” (two images below).
The difference may be due to the MJO forecast: the ECM model (image below) is faster, with eastward movement into and through phase 8, while the GEFS (two images below) is slower and kills the signal during early February. The SPV is still forecast to strengthen into the last week of the month, and the ECM may be picking up better on the phasing of the two signals.
Both long-range models show at least average precipitation for the first week of February (images below). So hopefully the dry spell will end by the end of the month or a few days later, in early February. WG
