Powder Forecast – Friday, January 23rd, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Sat 1/24 = 0”
Sun 1/25 = 0”
Mon 1/26 = 0”
Tue 1/27 = 0”
Wed 1/28 = 0”
Thu 1/29 = 0 – 1”
Fri 1/30 = 0 – 1”
Sat – Mon 1/31 – 2/2 = 0”
January Snowfall = 43”
January Forecast = ~43”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Sat 1/24 and Tue 1/27 – No snowfall expected all days except for a chance for flurries Saturday.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) shows a low-pressure system just off the coast of Baja and high pressure off the West Coast. There is also a short-wave moving southward from Idaho into the Great Basin in Nevada. The western edge of that system will move through the eastern Sierra tomorrow, bringing an increase in the breeze and colder temperatures down to more seasonable levels. There is also a chance for flurries.
Weak high pressure will rebuild Sunday (image below) and early next week, with a weak short-wave moving through the ridge with some passing high clouds at times. Temperatures should warm up slightly, with a gentle westerly breeze that may produce some wind buffeting at the Top.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance hasn’t changed much and shows the prolonged dry spell lasting into mid-February, with the overall teleconnection pattern favoring more cold for the East, which usually means dry for us. Current thinking is that the second half of February could be more active, heading into an active March.
The models move a weak weather system toward the coast around mid-week, with the GFS faster (image below) versus the ECM model (two images below). It also keeps it as an open wave with the ECM model developing a cut-off low.
Either way, the guidance is basically dry, with the ECM model (image below) showing very light amounts, and the GFS (two images below) showing mostly dry conditions. The ECM EPS (three images below) also shows little, as the guidance favors washing out the low upon landfall.
The ECM EPS then redevelops the ridge by the following weekend (image below) and keeps it mostly in place through the following week (two images below). The QPF from the model is basically dry with only two tenths of liquid for the 15-day period (three images below).
As mentioned in the last post, a change in the overall teleconnection pattern probably won’t occur until mid-February if the MJO enters the Indian Ocean or phases 2/3. The latest ECM model is still favoring that solution (image below), with most members taking that trajectory, with the question mark being whether the signal will stay having good amplitude. The GFS is not as bullish about the eastward movement of the MJO into phases 2/3.
The reasoning above fits with the current fantasy range QPF from the ECM EPS 45-day forecast. It shows below-normal precipitation through the second week of February (image below), with at least some returning in the third week (image below). Fingers crossed, we need more powder days. WG
