Powder Forecast – Tuesday January 27th, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Wed 1/28 = 0”
Thu 1/29 = 0”
Fri 1/30 = 0”
Sat 1/31 = 0”
Sun 2/1 = 0”
Mon 2/2 = 0”
Tue 2/3 = 0”
Wed – Sat 2/4 – 2/6 = 0”
January Snowfall = 43”
January Forecast = 43”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Wed 1/28 through Sat 1/31 – No snowfall expected all days.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) this afternoon shows a low-pressure system just off the West coast with a cold front now making landfall along the North Coast. That system will stay north of Mammoth with just passing clouds tonight and tomorrow along with slightly colder temperatures.
High pressure (image below) will then rebuild for the rest of the week for a continuation of fair weather along with seasonably mild temperatures by the end of the week and into the weekend.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance hasn’t changed much and shows the prolonged dry spell lasting into the second week of February before positive changes are possible just before mid-month that may last into the third week or longer.
The latest ECM model moves another weak short-wave trough into the high-pressure ridge over CA on Sunday (image below) with any precipitation likely staying north of Mammoth again. Probably just some passing clouds and an increase in the west breeze.
Stronger high pressure is then expected to develop by mid-week next week (image below) and generally hold through the next weekend and into the following week. That means more fair/dry weather in addition to seasonably mild temperatures. Both the ECM EPS (two images below) and the GFS ensemble (three images below) are basically dry for the 15-day period.
Changes are then possible toward the very back end of the period with the ECM EPS (image below) a little faster with a discontinuous retrogression of the longwave trough from the central and eastern US. It keeps the retrogression ongoing through mid-month (two images below) that would allow storms to move into CA and hopefully powder days.
The ECM long range forecast is saying that precipitation will increase around mid-month (image below) and through the third week (two images below). The GFS extended is slightly different and not as wet until the third week of February. Hopefully the models will get more bullish about the storm potential and that may be linked to the tropics.
The ECM model (image below) continues to suggest that the MJO will eventually move into phase 2 and possibly phase 3 by the second week of February. That would be consistent with the long range forecast of troughing along the West Coast, especially if the Stratospheric Polar Vortex is weak. The GFS (image below) kills the signal in phase 8 and stalls it mostly inside the unit circle, suggesting not much input from tropical forcing. So far this winter, the ECM model has fared slightly better with that forecast, hoping that trend continues. WG
