Powder Forecast – Friday, January 30th, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Sat 1/31 = 0”
Sun 2/1 = 0”
Mon 2/2 = 0”
Tue 2/3 = 0”
Wed 2/4 = 0”
Thu 2/5 = 0”
Fri 2/6 = 0”
Sat – Mon 2/7 – 2/9 = 0 – 2”
January Snowfall = 43”
January Forecast = 43”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Sat 1/31 through Tue 2/3 – No snowfall expected all days.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) this afternoon shows a low-pressure system entering the Pacific Northwest and another into the central Pacific. High pressure remains firmly in control over California.
High pressure (image below) will weaken and slide eastward a bit over the weekend (image below) as a weak weather system moves into the PacNW. That may increase the westerly breeze over the weekend; otherwise, dry weather continues through early next week, with high pressure rebuilding Monday and Tuesday.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance hasn’t changed much and indicates a prolonged dry spell lasting into the second week of February, with positive changes possible just before mid-month that may last into the third week or longer.
Strong high pressure is expected to hold through midweek (image below) and will likely only gradually weaken into the following weekend. That means continued fair/dry weather with mild temperatures mid-week, slowly cooling by the weekend, but remaining above normal for early February.
There are hints of change discussed in the last couple of posts that are now appearing a bit in the 11-15 day forecast that goes into mid-February now. The GFS ensemble (image below) is suggesting that the longwave trough in the East will persist, but also favors troughing to retrograde back westward around that time from across the interior West. The ECM EPS is a little different (two images below), with the troughing a bit deeper over CA by early to mid-week versus the GFS ensemble. That would mean earlier snowfall chances next week.
Overall, the models (images below) indicate some precipitation for the latter part of the period and more than half an inch of liquid. That is certainly not enough for deep powder, but it could be enough for at least low-end powder conditions if most of it falls with one storm.
For the second half of February, both super long-range model suites are favoring longwave troughing along the West Coast for most of the period that would allow storms to move into CA and Mammoth again. That aligns with the MJO moving into the Indian Ocean (image below) and the SPV remaining weak, as discussed previously.
The GFS extended forecast shows average precipitation for the third week of February (image below) and slightly above-normal precipitation for the fourth week (two images below). The ECM extended (images below) is opposite, with slightly above first, then average for the last week of next month. Either way, the prolonged dry weather should end by around mid-February. WG
