Powder Forecast – Tuesday, February 3rd, 2026
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Snowfall forecasts are valid at the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge) for the prior 24 hours as reported in the 6-7 AM morning snow report.
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Wed 2/4 = 0”
Thu 2/5 = 0”
Fri 2/6 = 0”
Sat 2/7 = 0 – 1”
Sun 2/8 = 0”
Mon 2/9 = 0”
Tue 2/10 = 2 – 4”
Wed – Fri 2/11 – 2/13 = 2 – 4”
February Snowfall = 0”
February Forecast = 35 – 50”
Detailed 4-day Snowfall Forecast:
Wed 2/4 through Sat 2/7 – No snowfall expected all days except for a chance for flurries Friday PM.
Forecast Summary:
Short Term (Days 1 – 4):
The current infrared satellite image (below) this afternoon shows strong high pressure over the state, resulting in fair and mild conditions for early February, with temperatures today on the hill ranging from the 30s up top to low 50s at Eagle.
High pressure (image below) will weaken and slide eastward by Friday when a weak low-pressure system approaches the coast. That means cooler temperatures and some clouds. It may also produce some light snow showers or flurries above 8500 feet on Friday PM, but no meaningful accumulation is expected. High pressure rebuilds over the weekend.
Long Range (Days 5+):
The longer-range guidance hasn’t changed much and shows the prolonged dry spell ending next week, followed by a possible storm cycle over the following week. The key will be how fast the MJO moves into phases 2 and 3. The latest GFS run (image below) shows it moving into those phases faster and with greater amplitude. Hopefully, it won’t take that minor dip into the unit circle and remain strong moving into phase 2 during the second week of February.
The guidance is in good agreement that the dry spell will end gently early next week, with the ECM model (image below) moving a weak short-wave trough into CA Monday/Tuesday. That solution is well supported by both the ECM EPS (two images below) and the GFS ensemble (three images below).
The QPF from the deterministic runs is not in great agreement, though. The ECM model is the wettest (image below) at around an inch of liquid. The 12z GFS (two images below) has about half that amount at just under half an inch.
However, the ensemble means of both those models are in better agreement, with both models showing around 0.65” of liquid (images below). The forecast follows that guidance and is favoring around six inches of snowfall at Main and enough for powder conditions. Most of the snowfall looks to occur on Monday night and Tuesday during the day. Should have a better handle on the Friday update.
The models then favor high pressure, briefly rebuilding the state for the rest of the week. Favorable changes are then expected over the Presidents’ Day weekend with the longwave trough finally developing along the West Coast (ECM image below) and the jet stream far enough southward and active into California. The GFS model is similar.
This potential pattern is also well supported by both the ECM EPS (image below) and the GFS ensemble (two images below). Thus, even though this solution is more than 10 days out, confidence is higher than normal due to strong model agreement.
The models indicate there could be good snowfall. The GFS (image below) is wetter than the ECM (two images below), with around 4” of liquid versus about 2” with both models, showing enough for deep powder. The ECM EPS (three images) has about 1.5”, lower than both the deterministic runs and probably the best forecast. The GFS ensemble shows above normal precipitation for the 5-day period (four images below).
The ECM EPS is probably the best forecast, as this appears to be a colder type of storm coming from the Gulf of Alaska. The ECM model is showing lots of snowfall (image below) at very low snow levels, indicative of a dynamic low-moisture cold type storm with high liquid to snow ratios. The GFS model is wetter as it has more southwest and warm flow ahead of the trough passage. The forecast leans toward a colder storm type and, hopefully, lots of dry powder.
The longer-range guidance does flatten the trough in the super extended (image below) and has more of a zonal flow into the West Coast. If the jet stream (purple arrow) stays as far south as projected by the GEFS model, then more storms and powder days should occur into the following weekend. WG
